The citrus industry is paying "particular attention" to the United States, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Korea as key markets for the coming season, a strategy undampened by revised production estimates of 5.7 million cartons less than last year's 164.8m.
The industry said only one in five growers had made a positive return over the past year, which had been an extremely tough one for growers who had to battle a surge in farming input prices and transport costs, as well as big shipping price hikes that made the cost of getting fruit to market commercially unviable for many.
Citrus Growers’ Association chief executive Justin Chadwick said the industry was hampered by the introduction of what it terms the unjustified and discriminatory new False Coddling Moth (FCM) regulations passed by the European Union (EU) mid-season, as well as the ongoing decay at home of public infrastructure and an erratic electricity supply.
"As a result of many of these challenges – expected to persist in 2023, with some even worsening, such as increased bouts of load shedding and ever-growing input costs – the estimates for a number of varietals show only moderate growth, or a decrease, when compared to 2022," Chadwick said in a statement.
The CGA has called on government to intervene in the EU's raising the bar on FCM regulations, which stipulate that fruit be placed in cold storage prior to shipping.
The CGA said this would require spending more than R1 billion on a process not deemed suitable for the fruit. The requirement was also discriminatory as other exporters to that market were not as stringently regulated.
"This in unfair, it is against the World Trade Organisation’s code of practices. The EU has never had a manifestation of the FCM; South Africa is the least of the countries to transgress that."
On exports, Chadwick said current forecasts showed these could potentially continue to grow by 10m cartons a year (on average) for the next decade, hitting 220m tons being shipped overseas in the next five years, and up to 260m tons in the next ten.
"This means the industry could potentially sustain a further 100 000 jobs and generate an additional R20 billion in annual revenue, bringing its total contribution to 240 000 jobs and R50bn in revenue.' Chadwick said.
According to the CGA, citing export volume forecasts for the coming season made by citrus growing varietal focus groups at the Citrus Marketing Forum last week, lemons were slated at 37.3m (15kg) cartons for export to key markets, an increase of 2.6m when compared to last year.
The increase was a result of younger trees coming into production across a number of regions, including the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. However, the recent heavy rains in the northern parts of the country and hail in the Eastern Cape could potentially decrease the overall volumes exported as the impact of these weather events became clear.
There is an expected decrease of 2.5m cartons of navels for export due to farms in some regions not exporting their fruit, pegging the total export at 25.3m cartons.
It is estimated 54.5m (15kg) cartons of Valencia oranges will be exported in 2023, a 700 000 increase from the 53.8 million cartons shipped last season. The CGA said good weather conditions in a number of regions have resulted in the predicted increase in production levels.
"However, feedback from some markets have revealed a decrease in consumption levels of citrus in some countries, which could impact the final amount shipped," Chadwick said.
It is estimated 12.7m (17kg) cartons of grapfruit will be exported during the upcoming season, a 2.1m decrease when compared to 2022.
Chadwick said among the reasons for the drop in predicted numbers is many regions not planning to pack class 2 and processed grade fruit for export this year.
BUSINESS REPORT