Cape Town - The deployment of new sub-committee chairmen of the ANC national executive committee (NEC) may be an indication of possible cabinet ministers or parliamentary portfolio committee chairmen in a Jacob Zuma/Kgalema Motlanthe government next year.
Commentators have described the new leadership cadre as being sensibly and thoughtfully selected.
Academic Xolela Mangcu, the former head of the Steve Biko Foundation, says the deployment of former trade unionist Cyril Ramaphosa may be an indication that the billionaire businessman is in line for a government post after the national elections early next year.
ANC Youth League leader Fikile Mbalula, to whom a political debt is owed by ANC president Zuma, should also be watched. Mbalula was a vocal supporter of Zuma in the run-up to last month's ANC Polokwane national conference.
Mangcu, who has been outspoken in his opposition to President Thabo Mbeki, believing he was more of a threat to stability than Zuma, said the ANC national working committee had made "some really inspired choices".
He said these choices included retaining people like arts and culture minister Pallo Jordan and Max Sisulu, the former ANC chief whip turned businessman.
Mangcu said Ramaphosa was also an inspired choice "and I would like to see him as minister of finance" to replace Trevor Manuel next year.
His view was reflected by Business Unity SA chief executive Jerry Vilakazi, who said that from an economic point of view, there appeared to be a commitment to policy continuity from the NEC, which makes recommendations to the national working committee.
He noted that Sisulu had been chairing the economic transformation committee for the past five years. He had also consulted "extensively" with business ahead of the ANC policy conference last year.
Vilikazi did not believe the changes to the NEC would lead to major shifts in the policy direction of the ANC, although he did believe there would be a greater focus on fighting poverty "in a dedicated way".
Business looked forward to working with the NEC to ensure economic growth while eradicating poverty and unemployment, he said.
In contrast, former transport minister Mac Maharaj, who played a pivotal role in the Zuma victory at Polokwane, said he did not believe one could read too much into the line-up of subcommittee chairmen. He noted that the subcommittee chairs had to be elected to, and drawn from, the ranks of the NEC.
"The reshuffles were made to accommodate that primarily," he said.
A number of Mbeki acolytes who failed to be re-elected to the NEC are no longer chairs for that reason.
These include public works minister Thoko Didiza, who has been replaced as social transformation subcommittee chairman by housing minister Lindiwe Sisulu; and defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota, who has been replaced as parliamentary political committee chair by the speaker of the national assembly, Baleka Mbete.
Former Eastern Cape MEC Enoch Godongwana, allied with NEC member and billionaire businessman Tokyo Sexwale, has replaced public administration minister Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi as labour subcommittee chairman.
Former SA National Defence Force head Siphiwe Nyanda has replaced safety and security minister Charles Nqakula - the former SA Communist Party chairman who is also seen to be part of the Mbeki camp - as peace and stability subcommittee chair.
Zweli Mkhize, KwaZulu-Natal's health MEC, has replaced health minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, which may be an indication that he is headed for greater responsibility, possibly at national level.
Institute for a Democratic Alternative for SA researcher Jonathan Faull said Max Sisulu brought continuity as he had served as chairman before.
Much of the lateral thinking of the subcommittee had been articulated through the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for SA, he remarked.
The Zuma faction is pushing for new ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe to be translated into the cabinet, possibly as deputy president or minister of communications, with wide speculation that the incumbent Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri, who failed to make it onto the NEC, is set to retire.