JOHANNESBURG - There will be a flurry of data releases next week as there will be the normal start-of-the-month data releases, but the event that will mostly likely to dominate is the media briefing on the 2017/18 Tax take by Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene and acting South Africa Revenue Service (SARS) Commissioner Mark Kingon, which will take place in Pretoria at 11am on Tuesday.
The SARS said at its media briefing on the 2017 Tax Statistics that Personal Income Tax (PIT) had supported revenue collections last tax year, but it expected a turnaround in tax collections as the economy improved after a slowdown in 2016.
Tax revenue collected amounted to R1.144 trillion in 2016/17, which was a 6.9% increase. PIT on the other hand grew by higher rate of 9.4% and contributed 37.2% of revenue collected compared with 29.6% in 2007/08 when other taxes shared more of the tax burden.
On Tuesday we also have the start-of-the-month releases with the Absa March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) first up in the morning and then February new vehicle sales and exports in the afternoon.
The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) Absa manufacturing index rose to 49.9 in January from 44.9 in December and 48.6 in November. The business expectations index rose to 79.1 in February from 72.8 in January, 61.9 in December from 50,0 in November as purchasing managers believe a change in the African National Congress leadership will result in stronger economic growth this year. The business activity (output) index jumped to 54.1 in February from 52.0 in January and 42.7 in December. The new sales orders index rose to 52.7 in February from 50.4 in January and 45.0 in December. The employment index edged down to 45.3 in February from 45.6 in January and 44.8 in December.
The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA (Naamsa) new vehicle sales dropped by 3.8% y/y in February after falling by 8.9% y/y in January and rising by 1,8% in 2017. New car sales slipped by 0.4% y/y in February after falling by 11.6% y/y in January, while light commercial vehicle sales fell by 9.6% y/y after dropping by 2.1% y/y and medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 13.4% y/y after easing by 6.1% y/y, while heavy vehicle sales slumped by 14.6% y/y after growing by 4.5% y/y.
On Thursday we have the March Standard Bank PMI and the February electricity consumption data.
The Standard Bank Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.4 in February from 49.0 in January, 48.4 in December and 48.8 in November. The January 2015 reading of 49.8 was the first sub-50 reading since July 2014, while the May 2016 was above 50 for the first time in 12 months. Respondents said employment rose for the first time in three months as companies enrolled more people into training schemes in January.
Electricity consumption rose by 1.2% y/y in January after only a small 0.5% gain in 2017. A rough guide to GDP growth is that recently electricity growth is half that of GDP growth.
The power supplied by non-Eskom producers of the total produced rose to 9.8% in January from 9.7% in December and 8.9% in November. The power supplied has increased from only 884 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) in December 2007 to 1 929 GWh in August 2017. In October 2017 more non-Eskom power facilities were connected to the grid, while Eskom reduces its base load generation in the summer months to carry out maintenance.
Electricity imports rose by 6.3% y/y in January after falling by 18.8% in 2017, while exports jumped by 14.1% y/y after dropping by 8.1% y/y. Exports grew by 13.3% in 2016, while imports fell by 19.2%.