Non-Stats SA releases to dominate data week ahead
JOHANNESBURG - Non-Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data releases will dominate the calendar next week even though there are many Stats SA releases due as well as the focus of economists will be on the fiscal deficit and the foreign trade surplus.
On Monday we have the statistics on July liquidations and June insolvencies from Stats SA. The number of liquidations was unchanged year-on-year (y/y) in June at 154 after surging by 41.1% y/y in May to 175 and falling by 24.7% y/y in April to 113. The number of insolvencies eased by 5.8% y/y in May to 194 after dropping by 5.0% y/y in April to 171 and falling by 21.8% y/y in March to 176.
On Wednesday we have the building statistics for 2016. This release has a far wider coverage than the normal monthly release, which only covers larger municipalities. This is one of the reasons why we have revisions to data as it takes time to get information from remote areas.
Thursday will be a busy day as we have July money supply in the early morning, July producer inflation in late morning and July government spending and revenue in the afternoon.
Broad M3 money supply growth rose to 5.77% y/y in June from 5.73% y/y in May, while narrow M0 money supply growth eased to 5.82% y/y from 8.74% y/y. Economic activity seems to be fuelled more by cash than credit as total loans and advances y/y change dipped to the lowest since 2009 to 3.78% y/y in May from 4.29% y/y in April before recovering to 4.92% y/y in June. In particular household credit demand rose to 4.5% y/y in June from 4.2% y/y in May, 4.1% y/y in April and 3.9% y/y in March, while non-household, which is mostly corporate, recovered to 5.3% y/y in June from 3.3% y/y in May, 4.5% y/y in April and 5.1% y/y in March. Economists expect further growth in money supply and credit in July.
Producer inflation rose to 5.9% y/y in June from 4.6% y/y in May. Economists expect producer inflation to move above 6% y/y in July due to the recent weakness in the rand. Intermediate goods prices jumped by 3.1% y/y in June after edging up by 0.2% y/y in May and a 0.1% y/y rise in April. Mining prices rose by 8.0% y/y in June after a 3.5% y/y gain in May and a 2.6% y/y fall in April. Agricultural prices increased by 2.3% y/y in June after a 2.6% y/y rise in May and edging up by 0.4% y/y in April.
The provisional government financing data points to a big fiscal deficit in July, but at some R95billion it will not be much different from the R92.2 billion deficit of July 2017. Government revenue rose by 8.6% y/y in June after a 12.1% y/y increase in May and a 8.5% y/y gain in April, while expenditure was cut by 6.1% y/y after growing by 5.9% y/y and surging by 19.5% y/y. In July 2017 however, government spending soared by 13.8% y/y after a 16.9% y/y jump in June, while revenue fell by 0.5% y/y after a 6.7% y/y gain in June.
On Friday the foreign trade data for July will be released. Economists are expecting another surplus in July similar to that of June. The foreign trade surplus widened to R12 billion in June from a R3.8 billion surplus in May. The widening was due to a R17.3 billion or 7.1% jump in exports to R110.1 billion, while imports slipped by R888 million or 0.9% to R98.1 billion.
- BUSINESS REPORT