It has been more than a year since Russia invaded Ukraine and the side effects of the war continue to have an impact on the global economy.
Not only has the war squeezed the supply of commodities, but it has pushed up prices of these commodities to unprecedented levels, causing exacerbated food shortages and stoking inflation in many countries.
Russia’s unjustified invasion in Ukraine has now also become a humanitarian issue as reports show that 354 000 Russian and Ukraine soldiers have been killed or injured in the war while critical infrastructure has also been damaged.
When the war began, it sent shock waves to the global markets especially in the food and energy markets.
The war soared global prices as Ukraine is reported to be the world’s top producer and exporter of sunflower meal, oil and seed.
While agricultural products are said to be Ukraine’s most important exports which in 2021, they accounted for 41% of the country’s $68 billion (R1.2 trillion) overall exports.
Russia on the other hand is said to be exporting energy (oil, gas, coal), rolled steel, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and minerals, as well as timber, fertilisers, machinery, equipment and armaments.
This impacting the global trade, production, and consumption; leading to high commodity prices beyond 2023 and posing a risk to food security worldwide.
A few months ago, I met a delegation from Ukraine, ordinary citizens who were in South Africa to mobilise support on the ground by talking to ordinary South Africans about their lived experiences of the war initiated by Russia.
They told stories of missiles flying over their houses, near misses from being bombed, civilian women having to be trained to go to the battlefield because there aren’t enough men to fight, and how children were being prepared to protect themselves or hide in cases of danger.
For me personally, they put a face to these numbers and stories we see and read about in the media. They explained the reasons behind the war and why as Ukrainians, they were prepared to fight for their territory or die trying.
I couldn’t help but see parallels and reflect on our very own experience of the civil war we had between 1985 and 1995 in South Africa. It is reported that more than 20 000 people perished in that war between the ANC, Inkatha and the National Party government.
These are numbers, but as children we lived through the civil war, always scared that our older siblings who were out in the streets rioting may not come home in the evening. Either because they would have been arrested by the police or been killed by Inkatha warriors who were dreaded.
I still have the vivid memory of the constant fear and the army vehicles driving up and down our street with white soldiers peeping out with guns, as my mother was doing laundry outside and hanging washing on the washing line. It was an abnormal situation but life continued, nonetheless.
We woke up everyday to go to school, passed burning tyres and sometimes a dead body along the way as we walked to school. When signs of the riots starting were heard, the school principal would gather all the children to the school assembly and tell us to run home as fast as we could.
These are the stories that the numbers don’t capture, that many of us have chosen to forget as we work towards the development and transformation of the country.
Outside the human stories that we must sympathise with, the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war on African soil are dire and have disrupted the promising recovery from Covid-19 by raising food and fuel prices, limiting green transitions, tightening fiscal space, and reducing the flow of foreign investment in the continent.
It was, therefore, refreshing to see African leaders, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, embarking on a peace mission, meeting both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was both a significant and historic moment for Africa as it was the first time such a mission had to be embarked outside the continent.
The significance of the moment is that it is the clearest sign that the wind of transformation have arrived. The role of Africa in the global space has shifted as Africa begins to take its place in the leadership seat. Africa has been through different forms of conflict to understand conflict management well.
South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy is hailed globally as a miracle because of how the conflict was peacefully managed. Then who better than Africa, led by South Africa to help Russia and Ukraine find their way back to peace? Africa must seize the moment and lead. The time has come.
Dr Sibongile Vilakazi is the president of the Black Management Forum.
BUSINESS REPORT