FILE PHOTO - The JP Morgan & Chase Co. building in New York
FILE PHOTO - The JP Morgan & Chase Co. building in New York

40 percent chance of no-Brexit – JP Morgan

By Reuters Time of article published Dec 5, 2018

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INTERNATIONAL – There is now a 40 percent probability of Britain staying in the European Union, economists at JP Morgan said on Wednesday, citing a European Court of Justice opinion the previous day that Britain could unilaterally revoke Brexit if it wanted.

“The UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally and taking a period of time of its own choosing to decide what happens next. 

That time could be used to hold a second referendum on terms entirely decided by the UK,” Malcolm Barr wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

He raised the probability of no-Brexit to 40 percent from 20 percent previously, and also raised the likelihood of a no-deal “hard” Brexit to 20 percent from 10 percent He lowered the chance of an orderly Brexit to 50 percent from 60 percent.

Reports show that UK consumer spending slows in run-up to Brexit. 

British consumer spending grew last month at its slowest pace in more than a year, excluding Easter distortions, with online Black Friday sales failing to offset a lack of confidence about the economy ahead of Brexit, industry data showed on Tuesday.


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