Pretoria - The red carpet was rolled out for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Waterkloof Air Force Base on Thursday night when he arrived for a two-day whistle-stop visit to South Africa.
The South African government has placed a great deal of strategic value on the visit, which will afford the two heads of state a chance to meet one-on-one and raise confidential issues of concern when they meet at the Union Buildings today.
Out of earshot of the government officials and the media, Modi will most likely lobby President Jacob Zuma to support India's bid for full membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a plea he has made to heads of state around the world in his recent nonstop foreign travel.
This puts South Africa in a difficult position, given that China is against India's membership, as one of the criteria for belonging to NSG is that members must sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
China has argued forcefully that exceptions cannot be made for certain states, and accepting India as a member would be unfair to Pakistan, raising regional tension.
Modi has previously raised the NSG issue with Zuma in bilateral talks, and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has raised it with Minister of International Relations and Co-operation Maite Nkoana-Mashabane.
South Africa remains undecided as to whether to support India's bid, but has expressed concerns about the setting of a precedent if the group includes non-signatories of the NPT.
While senior officials at the Department of International Relations believe India is 90 percent of the way there in terms of convincing NSG members to support its bid, the decision to include new members must be unanimous.
The reason why inclusion in the NSG is so important to India is that it makes access to nuclear technology and the purchase of nuclear material significantly easier and cheaper. It remains to be seen whether South Africa would risk angering China - its strategic ally and largest trading partner in Asia - by agreeing to India’s request.
From South Africa's side, Zuma will want to raise the issue of UN Security Council reform with his counterpart, given that India is part of the Group of Four working on proposals for reforming the Security Council. The other countries in the Group of Four are Brazil, Germany, and Japan.
South Africa and India have historically supported each other's bids to become permanent members of the council, and South Africa will likely ask India to continue pushing the AU position on Security Council reform, which is guided by the Ezulwini Consensus.
Beyond multilateral issues, the two heads of state will look towards strengthening bilateral relations, specifically in the area of trade and investment. Given the economic focus of Modi’s foreign policy, and South Africa’s need to improve its trade balance with India, both sides will be looking to sign new deals.
Last year, South Africa and India engaged in two-way trade worth R95 billion, 10 percent of which was in India’s favour.
Modi has brought 30 captains of industry to South Africa to participate in a CEO forum, which will then be followed by a larger India-South Africa business forum organised by the Department of Trade and Industry.
It is expected that South Africa and India will sign memorandums of understanding in the areas of ICT, science, tourism, culture and sport.
Independent Foreign Service