CAPE TOWN - The fourth Industrial Revolution will dramatically reshape the world of work and force us to rethink our approach to our careers, our lives, and our aspirations. With a global market estimated to reach $70billion (R912bn) by 2020, machine learning is driving fundamental change in the way every industry operates.
Learning algorithms are already pioneering advances in customer service, manufacturing, healthcare, auditing, legal counsel, and insurance underwriting, with more industries to follow.
Old notions of job security have all but disappeared: the thought of working for the same company for 40 years until retirement is laughable. In 1965, corporations remained in the S&P 500 Index for an average of 33 years; by 2012 this had already shrunk to 18 years. With the rapid pace of development bankrupting and displacing large behemoths like Kodak and Blockbuster, no one should be under the illusion that a company is too big to fail.
In PwC’s latest report on the impact of automation, up to 38percent of jobs in the US are at risk, with Germany (35percent) and the UK (30percent) not far behind. And it’s not manual labour that is most in peril: accountants, lawyers, call centre agents, machine operators, and insurance underwriters are at or near the top of lists of jobs most likely to become redundant thanks to machines.
In response, it is likely that the governments will start implementing policies to protect an already fragile job market. However, the commercial benefits of automation are vast and far-reaching. In an example recently cited by the World Economic Forum, a Chinese factory in Dongguan City replaced 90percent of its workforce with machines, leading to an incredible 250percent boost in productivity, with defects reduced by 80percent.
Governments need to take a more forward-looking approach and find innovative ways of incentivising and equipping people to educate themselves. Learning the types of skills unlikely to be replaced by machines in the coming years is critical - especially here in Africa.
South Africa’s latest unemployment figures paint a bleak picture: the official rate is 27.7percent, or 6.2million people who want to work but can’t find employment. A closer look, however, will reveal that the vast majority of the unemployed are without a tertiary education. Among graduates the unemployment rate is a mere 7.3percent.
To help stimulate job creation, government and industry have worked hard at establishing a business process outsourcing industry as a key job creator and economic driver. One industry body claims the sector already employs more than 30000 people, and aims to grow this to 80000 by 2021. Considering most of the outsourced jobs are in call centres and customer service, it is alarming that so much effort is being put into industries that are most at risk of automation.
Across the continent, explosive population growth is expected to bring a further 122million people into the workforce by 2020. Due to shortcomings in the continent’s education sector, these workers are likely to be overwhelmingly unskilled or semi-skilled. Absorbing 122million people into formal economic activity will be paramount to the continent’s on-going development and prosperity.
We need an urgent change in how we approach skills development and work.
Lifelong learning
Those wishing to future-proof their careers should stop relying on traditional notions of work. Many of the skills required for the future - such as data science and machine learning - are not yet formally offered at university level, and even where they are the industry changes so quickly that by the time a student exits a four-year degree, much of their knowledge is already outdated. In response, we should all aspire to a lifelong approach to learning.
Developing skills in the Science, Technology, Engineering and maths fields, as well as arts and humanities - where machines will struggle with replicating design, creation, empathy, and problem-solving thought - represents workers’ best defence against automation.
Many modern tech companies no longer look solely at academic transcripts and qualifications as the main benchmark of your employability. Instead, practical tests are given that gauge a candidate’s actual ability to complete work-related tasks and think creatively and laterally.
It is certain that some jobs will be disrupted - even eliminated - by automation.
It’s high time we overhaul our education and skills development sector.
Daniel Schwartzkopff is the co-founder of DataProphet.