Census data reveals the demographic shifts that have occurred in our country. The National Development Plan (NDP) on human settlements expresses the views of South Africans thus: “Our human settlements trajectory proposes that ‘by 2050 visible results from effectively co-ordinated spatial planning systems shall have transformed human settlements in South Africa into equitable and efficient spaces, with citizens living in close proximity to work, with access to social facilities and necessary infrastructure’.
“By 2030, we strive to achieve measurable progress towards breaking apartheid spatial patterns, with significant advances made towards retrofitting existing settlements offering the majority of South Africans access to adequate housing, affordable services in better living environments, within a more equitable and functional residential property market.”
In “Inside Statistics” last week, I focused on two suburbs, Hillbrow and Sunnyside. Today’s article unpacks how the settlement preferences of South Africans have panned out in the Johannesburg metropolitan area between 2001 and 2011.
Figure 1 is a representation of population distribution based on the 2001 and 2011 censuses. The panel on the left shows that the metropolitan area was less populated at the time of Census 2001 than it was when Census 2011 (the panel on the right) was conducted.
Figure 1 represents the change in population distribution in the Johannesburg metropolitan area based on the results of the 2001 and 2011 censuses.
The panel for Census 2011 shows the population of the Johannesburg metropolitan area has grown dramatically. More importantly, it shows the growth has been concentrated away from the north-south corridor in favour of the peripheral areas. The corridor is traversed by the ReaVaya bus network and other transport networks.
Figure 2 is a representation of planned housing developments and the location of businesses. The figure reveals a trend that is inconsistent with the NDP’s vision for 2050, which states that human settlements should be transformed into equitable and efficient spaces, with citizens living in close proximity to their places of work.
Figure 2 represents planned housing developments and the location of businesses in the Johannesburg metropolitan area.
The lived experiences reflected by Census 2011 appear consistent with the plans for human settlements in figure 2. The plan reflects housing that is far away from places of work.
The question that arises is why the plans are inconsistent with the vision for the densification of human settlements, particularly in metropolitan areas.
The persistent challenges generated by the apartheid spatial economy require deep and thorough skills in urban and regional planning.
Squatter settlements remain a significant contour of South Africa’s urban space. In the Western Cape and Gauteng, there are limited signs that this feature of South Africa’s geography is being mitigated or eliminated. In the words of Justice Dikgang Moseneke, “apartheid spatial patterns remain. Citizens in informal settlements run the risk of mass evictions.”
In addition to this challenge, the cost and time required to travel to work have increased, turning cities into less efficient engines of growth, employment, knowledge, social progress and development. The impact of this falls much more heavily on those in shack settlements.
According to the 2015/16 Living Conditions Survey released in January, household expenditure in Gauteng in respect of housing, household amenities and transport was 38 percent, compared with the average of 32percent for the country.
When the NDP’s vision for 2050, local economic development plans and integrated development plans conflict, present and future generations are burdened with a debt.
Pali Lehohla is the Statistician-General of South Africa and the head of Statistics South Africa.