December fuel prices: early data points to petrol increase, diesel decrease

Published Nov 14, 2022

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Johannesburg - Your December road trip is likely to be even more expensive than anticipated if you drive a petrol-powered car, but some much-needed relief could be on the cards for those with diesel vehicles.

According to the latest data released by the Central Energy Fund on November 14, there is currently an under-recovery for petrol which, for the month so far, averages R1.14 for 95 Unleaded and R1.03 for 93 Unleaded. On the upside, the latest daily data is showing smaller under-recoveries in the region of 50 cents for the two grades of petrol, primarily thanks to a stronger rand. This means that if current trends persist, the increase is likely to fall somewhere between 50 cents and 70 cents.

On the diesel front, we’re currently seeing an over-recovery of 22 cents for 500ppm, however with the latest daily data being around R1.70 in the green, a decrease of more than R1 per litre at the beginning of next month is certainly looking plausible. And any relief can’t come soon enough.

Diesel prices are at record highs, with 500ppm currently commanding a wholesale price of R25.48. 95 Unleaded petrol currently costs R22.22 at the coast and R22.87 in the inland regions, where 93 Unleaded retails at R22.57.

But regardless of where fuel prices land in December, your road trip is going to be somewhat more expensive than it was a year ago, when a litre of 93 Unleaded cost R20.07 in the inland regions. Even if December’s increase is limited to 50 cents, petrol will still be R3 costlier than it was at the end of 2021, which means you will pay an extra R150 if you’re putting 50 litres into a midsize car.

But keep in mind that our December fuel price predictions are based on unaudited data and much can change between now and the end of November, when the official prices will be announced by the Department of Energy.

While international oil prices have been volatile through the month, with Brent Crude trading on the high side at $96 at the time of writing, a stronger South African rand could soften the blow between now and month-end. Since the beginning of November, the local currency has appreciated from around R18.20 to R17.29.

IOL Motoring