Johannesburg - The Covid-19 pandemic
will likely kill at least 300 000 Africans and risks pushing 29
million into extreme poverty, the UN Economic Commission for
Africa (UNECA) said on Friday, calling for a $100 billion safety
net for the continent.
Africa's 54 countries have so far reported fewer than 20,000
confirmed cases of the disease, just a fraction of the more than
two million cases reported globally. But the World Health
Organization warned on Thursday that Africa could see as many as
10 million cases in three to six months.
"To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least
$100 billion is needed to immediately resource a health and
social safety net response," the UNECA report stated.
UNECA is also backing a call by African finance ministers
for an additional $100 billion in stimulus, which would include
a halt to all external debt service.
The agency modelled four scenarios based on the level of
preventive measures introduced by African governments.
A street trader sells cabbages by the side of the road, after the government ordered the closure of the main open-air market, in the Mathare slum, or informal settlement, of Nairobi, Kenya. Picture: Brian Inganga/AP
In the total absence of such interventions, the study
calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3
million would die this year. Africa has a total population of
around 1.3 billion.
Most of Africa, however, has already mandated social
distancing measures, ranging from curfews and travel guidelines
in some countries to full lockdowns in others.
Yet even its best-case scenario, where governments introduce
intense social distancing once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per
100,000 people per week is reached, Africa would see 122.8
million infections, 2.3 million hospitalisations and 300,000
deaths.
Members of the country's armed forces, the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF), help to distribute foodstuffs to people affected by the lockdown measures aimed at curbing the spread of the new coronavirus, in the Bwaise suburb of the capital Kampala, Uganda. Picture: Ronald Kabuubi/AP
Combating the disease will be complicated by the fact that
36% of Africans have no access to household washing facilities,
and the continent counts just 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000
people. France, in comparison, has 5.98 beds per 1,000 people.
Africa's young demographic - nearly 60% of the population is
below the age of 25 - should help stave off the disease. On the
other hand, 56 per cent of the urban population is concentrated
in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to
HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition.
Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said,
noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports
of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease.
A worker sprays disinfectant in the Port Bouet market of Abidjan, Ivory Coast in an attempt to halt the spread of the new coronavirus. Picture: Diomande Ble Blonde/AP
"In a best-case scenario ... $44 billion would be required
for testing, personal protective equipment, and to treat all
those requiring hospitalisation," it stated.
However, that is money Africa does not have as the crisis
could also shrink the continent's economy by up to 2.6%.
"We estimate that between 5 million and 29 million people
will be pushed below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day
owing to the impact of Covid-19," the report said.
A woman and her mother push a shopping trolley through the car park at a supermarket at a social grant pay point in Thokoza, east of Johannesburg. Picture: Themba Hadebe/AP
Nigeria alone will lose between $14 billion and $19.2
billion in revenues from oil exports this year. And the prices
of other African commodities exports have plummeted as well.
Lockdowns in Europe and the United States also imperil
Africa's $15 billion in annual textile and apparel exports as
well as tourism, which accounts for 8.5% of Africa's GDP.