There is a high chance that Cape Town will face erratic rainfall patterns - resulting in droughts as well as floods -, increased fire risks and increased population pressure, as people move from economically affected areas to the city.
This was the startling revelation last week at the Noordhoek Ratepayers Association (NRPA) and the Noordhoek Environmental Action Group (NEAG) community meeting where the topic of discussion was Climate Change. So important had the matter become that it was placed at the fore of the discussion.
The revelation of what was in store for Cape Town was by UCT’s Chris Jack who presented global trends, followed by what is expected to happen in South Africa as well as the Western Cape.
Jack was amongst the climate scientists, NEAG and the City of Cape Town members who put forward key challenges that the Valley will face in the coming decades and what communities can do on their own, without waiting on national or municipal authorities.
NEAG’s Dr Andrea Marais-Potgieter explained that ”when residents and the different stakeholders put together Noordhoek’s 2030 Vision in 2016, climate change was not yet ‘top of mind’.
Read the latest Simply Green digital magazine below
“So, although there are elements linked to climate change within the six goals of the Vision, it is not explicitly mentioned. With the increased focus on climate change, globally as well as at City level, now the time is right to revisit the Vision and include climate change explicitly,” she says.
One of the aspects of NEAG’s presentation outlined how a child born in 2020 would experience six times as many crop failures, twice as many wildfires, 2,6 times more drought events and 6,8 times more heatwaves, compared to a child born in the 1960s.
“People in under-resourced communities will tragically suffer the most,” says Marais-Potgieter.
NEAG and NRPA formed a task team, with the goal of the Noordhoek Vision. Marais-Potgieter says, “We soon realised that we couldn’t discuss this as Noordhoek alone, we had to include all the communities in the Valley. At this initial meeting, we wanted to showcase the science, the City’s plans and the role of nature as our biggest ally to representatives from all surrounding communities.”
“We were very encouraged by how eager people were to attend. Communities in the Valley are clearly keen to have conversations about climate change and to understand what we must do to ensure communities are informed, resilient and prepared,” she says.
NEAG, the City of Cape Town's Amy Davison and UCT climate scientist, Jack, each gave presentations.
Jack explained how scientists modelled the effects of climate change.
“Interestingly he said that it was challenging to do so in Cape Town because of the mountain and the interaction between the mountain, ocean and clouds,” says Marais-Potgieter.
The City of Cape Town also outlined their Climate Change Action Plan, which combines what City Council, communities, as well as individuals could and should do to mitigate climate change. Examples of community actions presented are composting, alien clearing, and planting trees.
The second session will be in April. “Then we’ll look at the issues that we will be facing in our Valley specifically, what we have control over, what we can realistically do and where communities might need support,” says Bas Zuidberg from NRPA. “Finally, the different communities will be stimulated to prepare their own plans in consultation with their residents.
Each community will probably have differing priorities, for example, it may be community gardens for food security in Ocean View, planting trees in Masi for heat preparedness and getting residents to install rooftop solar in other areas, like Noordhoek,” he says.
He also said: “It is important for communities to design a climate change plan that works for them and addresses what they believe to be the biggest risks”.
“For Noordhoek specifically the deliverable is a revised Vision document which will guide NRPA and NEAG in their actions in the years ahead. This will include actions that the Noordhoek community will do together with Masi, Sunnydale, Ocean View and Kommetjie to prepare and hopefully avoid what we believe climate change will mean for the Valley.
"In the end, it is going to take a huge collective effort, not only in the Valley of course, but we need to start somewhere and this wonderful Valley is a great place to do so. So far this has been a very encouraging and inspirational process,” says Marais-Potgieter.