Peace prospects in Northern Ireland rest on parties committing to power-sharing in line with Good Friday Peace Agreement, writes Shannon Ebrahim.
The world has been largely oblivious to the deepening political crisis in Northern Ireland.
Eighteen years ago, the Good Friday Peace Agreement that brought peace to the troubled territory was huge international news. But its unravelling has been all but ignored.
Northern Ireland’s history of extreme political violence and hatred was so visceral that once the peace process had been signed, there was immense celebration.
For much of the world, the problem was solved and few monitored progress in terms of reconciliation or mutual respect between all sides to the conflict, including the British state, which still claims jurisdiction over the region.
But the Good Friday Agreement was not a political settlement, it was a political compromise and an experiment in power-sharing based on political institutions set up to guarantee equality for all traditions and to recognise the all-Ireland context.
The peace process has transformed the overall political landscape, but resistance to this new dispensation has brought heightened levels of political instability, which, if left long enough, could damage the peace process itself.
Part of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 made the British and Irish governments equal partners in overseeing the peace process in Northern Ireland, and to guarantee delivery of mutual respect and equality for all political identities and traditions.
This has not happened for two reasons. The Irish government has acted as a junior partner and not as a sovereign co-equal, and been largely disengaged from the process.
The Conservative British government which was returned in 2015 has treated the Northern Ireland peace process with indifference, and adopted an explicitly pro-unionist bias. What the Tories did was step back from their obligations to implement the Good Friday Agreement.
The consequence is that neither the British nor Irish governments have met their international obligations to ensure that the principles enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement have been entrenched. This has emboldened a section of the political unionists in Northern Ireland who have never reconciled themselves to the requirements of power-sharing and equality.
This section is the Democratic Unionist Party, formerly led by Ian Paisley and currently led by Arlene Foster. Since the DUP joined a governing coalition with Sinn Fein in 2007, the DUP has practically refused to engage in power-sharing.
The result has been 10 years of continuous attrition against the Good Friday Agreement by those unionists who still hanker after the era of unionist domination. The resulting instability seems to have reached a boiling point.
Not only has the DUP acted contrary to the principles underlying the peace agreement, it has also shown disregard for the Irish identity. An example is the fact that in December, a DUP minister responsible for funding Irish language projects in Northern Ireland withdrew funding for bursary schemes which would have assisted underprivileged children in learning Irish through intensive programmes.
While he withdrew £50000 from this crucial language project, two months earlier, he awarded £100000 to fund unionist marching bands.
Public anger has exploded over such disregard for the Irish identity, and this is coupled with massive anger over recent corruption allegations concerning a green energy scheme run by the department overseen by Foster.
The scale of the financial scandal in recent months has shown a gross misuse of public funding, with a direct net loss to the public purse of half a billion pounds. This is money that could have been spent on public services such as healthcare, education and infrastructure.
As a result of this scandal, Sinn Fein’s Joint First Minister Martin McGuinness, in consultation with his party, resigned his position last month, thereby rendering the political institutions inoperable.
Elections have now been called for March 2, in what promises to be a watershed election. Sinn Fein has warned that Northern Ireland’s political institutions will not be reinstated unless real political transformation takes place.
The election will ultimately become a plebiscite on the status quo.
This political crisis is further complicated by the mandate given to the British government to exit the EU, which the majority of the electorate in Northern Ireland are against. As Britain continues with its austerity measures, thereby reducing its public expenditure, it becomes increasingly difficult for authorities in Northern Ireland to deliver services.
Northern Ireland has not seen such a depth of crisis since the beginning of the peace process, after the Irish Republican Army first ceased its military operations in 1994. With the DUP hostile to power-sharing to begin with, the questions become whether that party will adhere to the Good Friday Agreement and commit to power-sharing, and whether the British and Irish governments will now fulfil their responsibilities to properly oversee the peace and political processes.
* Shannon Ebrahim is the Foreign Editor for Independent Media