Tensions between Israel and Lebanon are escalating as Israel increases its violations of Lebanese airspace and its ignoring of United Nations agreed de-escalation protocols. It is important that any moves towards hostility between these two countries are curtailed, as the Middle East, which is facing instability in numerous countries including Iraq, Yemen and Syria, can hardly afford another war.
Lebanon is still in a very fragile state. Eight months ago, focal areas in Lebanon were “Arab-spring” like protests and its ever-declining economy. Anti-government protests had engulfed the country, eventually resulting in the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The economy had been experiencing stubborn stagnation, widespread unemployment and a mounting public debt crisis. All these were exacerbated by the Covid-19 virus, which placed even further stressors on the economy.
Though many challenges still exist, Lebanon’s political environment has started showing signs of stability and an attempt at structural transformation of the economy is underway. In December 2019, after consultations with parliamentary political blocs, Hassan Diab was designated as the prime minister and on January 21, Prime Minister Diab announced a new government consisting of a cabinet of 20 ministers. Lebanon also adopted a Financial Recovery Plan and is currently engaging the International Monetary Fund around meaningful economic reforms and access to a $11 billion fund pledged by the 2018 Paris donor conference. These funds are to be invested in infrastructure and broader economic development.
The country’s efficient action to contain the spread of Covid-19 best attests to Lebanon’s improving governance situation. When I passed through Beirut airport on February 2, screening for the virus was already underway despite Lebanon only having its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on February 21. By March 19, borders and ports were closed to control its spread. This efficiency has resulted in Lebanon, as at May 31 having recorded only 1,220 infections and 27 deaths; as compared to nearby Turkey, for example, which had 163,103 infections and 4,515 deaths.
But just as the domestic situation in Lebanon began returning to normalcy, an old external threat resurfaced. Israel is once again threatening this country, with a population size of less than 6 million people (similar to the population of the City of Johannesburg,) with full-scale war.
Violence has been prevalent on the border between Israel and Lebanon since the late 1960s. In June 1982, Israel officially invaded its neighbour. This month of May marked twenty years since the official withdrawal of the Israeli Defence Force from Lebanese soil, after a successful liberation struggle waged by Hezbollah.
Tensions have remained rife since then but have particularly escalated over the past few weeks. Some of the tensions can be attributed to Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanon’s Shab’a Farms, lingering disputes over water rights, intermittent drone attacks on southern Lebanon and almost daily violation of Lebanese airspace. These aggressions are in direct transgression of UN resolution 1701, of 2006, which calls for a cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel.
Developments in the neighbouring countries also strongly influence relations in the region. Lebanon currently hosts a large number of Syrian refugees. Israel continues to illegally use Lebanese air space to attack Syria and to consolidate its occupation of Syria’s Golan Heights. Syria has become the battleground, as Israel strikes Hezbollah targets on its territory. On April 22, for example, Israel fired missiles at the vehicle of three members of Hezbollah while they were in Syria.
Lebanon also hosts almost 175,000 Palestinian refugees. The determination of Israel to proceed with implementing the Trump “Deal of the Century” in occupied Palestine, and its ongoing oppression and repression of the Palestinian people creates further volatility of its relations with Lebanon. Lebanon has strong sympathies towards the Palestinian struggle and is likely to support any retaliation that might emanate should Israel proceed to annex the West Bank’s Jordan Valley.
Lebanon can ill-afford to be drawn into another full-scale war. Currently, its focus is on fixing its economy, feeding its people, and containing the spread of Covid-19. Israel, however, seems determined to use aggression against its neighbouring countries as a mechanism to deal with its domestic woes.
Israeli violations of Lebanon’s airspace have increased over the past few weeks, and tension along the Blue Line demarcation between the two countries’ borders have risen on multiple occasions recently. It is reported that Col. Israeli Friedler, an Israeli commander stated, “We are preparing seriously for the next war. We’re not taking any shortcuts because we understand we have to be extremely strong to defeat the enemy”. On the day that Lebanon celebrated its victory of Israel twenty years ago, Israeli aircraft provocatively flew at a medium altitude and conducted mock raids over Marjayoun in south Lebanon.
The world is facing a humanitarian crisis due to Covid-19. Israel should refrain from exacerbating the crisis by inciting further violence against the people of Palestine, Syria and Lebanon. The Middle East does not need another war.
* Reneva Fourie is a policy analyst specialising in governance, development and security and currently resides in Syria.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of IOL.