By Wendy Jasson da Costa
The season of horse-trading, backstabbing and political infighting has opened as politicians at all government levels prepare for the new floor-crossing period that opens on September 1.
In these two weeks MPs, MPLs and local-government councillors have the freedom to cross the floor to another political party, merge with another or form their own, without losing their seats. In 2007 it's even more significant because floor crossing will take place simultaneously at all three tiers of government.
Some political analysts say it's still too early to predict what will happen, but acknowledge that the "politicking" has already started.
There are six parties in the national assembly that started as a result of floor crossing - the Independent Democrats, formed in 2003; and the National Democratic Convention (Nadeco), United Independent Front, United Party of South Africa, Federation of Democrats, and Progressive Independent Movement, all of which were formed in 2005.
The ID survived the 2004 election, but racked by mutiny, allegations of autocratic rule and nepotism, it bled heavily during the 2005 floor-crossing period, which was characterised by court cases in a bid to retain seats.
This time round, though, Patricia de Lille, the party leader, has already called on all "cowards" to leave the party and not wait for the floor-crossing period, saying the ID would survive this period with a "gain, not a deficit".
Steven Otter, the ID spokesperson said this week: "Yes, we could lose some of our public representatives to floor crossing, but we have been approached by a great number of people from other parties."
The most closely watched seat in the ID is likely to be that of MP Avril Harding, the party's former secretary-general, who will face an internal disciplinary hearing for sexual harassment later in July.
Some believe the charge is a pre-emptive strike to stop Harding from defecting after he failed to be re-elected as secretary-general, although Otter has denied this.
Protas Madlala, a political analyst, says that behind every seat there is someone waiting to unseat you, and the ID, United Democratic Movement and Nadeco might lose out to bigger parties. Regarding Nadeco, he says it is probably the supporters of Ziba Jiyane, the former leader, who are mainly local councillors, who are most vulnerable.
When Jiyane defected from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to start Nadeco, many expected the party to breathe new life into the political landscape.
However, the party, which has four MPs, has been plagued by infighting and leadership battles, with loyalty divided between Jiyane and Hawu Mbatha. Mbatha is now firmly in the leadership seat.
An optimistic Dr Gavin Woods, one of the MPs who crossed to Nadeco from the IFP, says he senses a new stability in Nadeco and a strong youth constituency which makes him believe it's still too early to write the party off.
"I would only cross back to the IFP (and) only on the basis that Nadeco support was going back to the IFP," says Woods.
Madlala describes "greener pastures" as the basis of floor crossing, saying it is characterised by a lot of "carrot dangling" and an exodus from smaller parties to bigger ones with more resources. He therefore expects the ANC and DA to be the greatest beneficiaries.
Louis Green from the Federation of Democrats says Helen Zille, the DA leader, has been hard at work trying to form a broader alliance with like-minded parties. He says she is advocating the formation of a broad front to jointly contest the 2009 elections.
Green's move to the Federation of Democrats from the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) was regarded as a major coup, because he had served as ACDP deputy leader and chief whip. But he disagreed with ACDP leader Kenneth Meshoe's treatment of ACDP MP Rhoda Southgate and her husband Kevin, an MPL. When they formed the Federation of Democrats he joined them "on a matter of principle".
Green says he would not cross over to another party, but says they are in talks with others about forming a broader Christian democratic alliance.
Madlala says it's probably time to write the obituaries of small parties such as the Federation of Democrats, United Party of South Africa or United Independent Front. But some of their members might cling to their seats out of pride, he says. The United Independent Front has been fraught with infighting, factionalism and power struggles that began shortly after it was formed by a group that broke away from the UDM and ID.
Complicating matters further, the ID then approached the United Independent Front about the possibility of merging and forming a new party called the Social Democrats, during the same floor-crossing period, but the project was stillborn.
The United Independent Front was thrown into further turmoil with the death of its founder, Malizole Diko, in July 2006. Two court cases are pending that will determine the leadership of the party and who fills one of their two seats in the national assembly, which has been vacant since July 2006.
The United Independent Front has a third seat in the national council of provinces, occupied by Neville Hendricks. The court will have to rule on which of the two constitutions in existence is valid.
The party is split in two, with some who regard Ike Kekana as its president and others who say Nomakhaya Mdaka is its leader.
According to the party's secretary-general, Mzwandile Manjiya, a Mdaka loyalist, if the court rules in their favour, he anticipates that one or two of their members might cross the floor. The party has also been rocked by accusations of financial maladministration.
Stan Simmons (ex NNP) is the sole MP for the United Party of South Africa. The party nearly caused an "oops" in the Cape metropole in 2006 when it threatened to derail the local government elections because the IEC would only allow it to contest six wards in Cape Town, rather than its planned 36.
Then there is Progressive Independent Movement MP Craig Morkel, who defected from the DA and appears to be the only 2005 defector with a stable floor-crossing party, although he, too, has been embroiled in controversy.
Morkel insists that "size does not matter - it's the effect you have" and he says with the new floor-crossing season about to open, he's already had informal approaches from other political parties. So far the Progressive Independent Movement has 3 000 members, mainly in Western Cape.