ANC provincial leaders will lead a total of 3 675 branch delegates to the 52nd national conference in Polokwane, to elect a new leadership. Based on their attitude and preferences - not taking into consideration the ultimate decision from the ground - it seems it will be a tough race between President Thabo Mbeki and his ANC deputy, Jacob Zuma.
EASTERN CAPE (906 delegates)
Stone Sizani - chairman
He is a key Mbeki backer in the Eastern Cape and he has stated publicly that he wants the head of state to serve a third term as party leader.
He has the backing of the Amathole region, led by Mluleki George, the deputy defence minister. Sizani defeated Mcebisi Jonas - a Zuma supporter - last year to take the provincial chairmanship.
This was the first and crucial test for Mbeki's support in the party. Jonas has the backing of the OR Tambo municipality, the most powerful in the region, and one torn between Mbeki and Zuma. Mbeki campaigners admit that Zuma has the upper hand in this region. Sizani's union background will be instrumental in swaying some provincial Cosatu leaders to support a third term for Mbeki.
Siphatho Handi - secretary
Handi's rise from a sub-regional leader to a provincial secretary surprised many. But a provincial union leader said that Handi's close ties with the influential Mbeki chief campaigner, George, played a major role in winning him the position. His and Sizani's support for Mbeki has brought them closer, leading the provincial horse-trading negotiating team with other provinces.
S'bu Ndebele - chairman
Ndebele is the most unpopular leader in the province because of his support for Mbeki. He has been shunned by Zuma supporters and is alienated from most provincial leaders, who favour Mbeki's rival. The last provincial council nominated Zuma unanimously.
Ironically, when Ndebele took over from Zuma as the provincial chairman in 1998, he defeated Zweli Mkhize, Zuma's preferred candidate, with the backing of the powerful eThekwini region. But Bheki Cele, the eThekwini chairman, has since pledged his allegiance to Zuma. Ndebele is hoping that the horse-trading process among provincial ANC leaders will rescue the party from Zuma.
Senzo Mchunu - secretary
Mchunu has been accused of victimising those considered to be Mbeki sympathisers in KwaZulu-Natal and orchestrating an alleged campaign to keep Mbeki out of the province. Mchunu has close ties with the powerful Cele and Mkhize faction, and the three are the influential figures in the Zuma campaign. Mchunu is close to Zuma and this is said to be the reason he has been propelled to his current position.
WESTERN CAPE (219 delegates)
James Ngculu - chairman
The regional leadership favoured by Ngculu won the large and powerful Dullah Omar region (the Cape Town Metro) last weekend, buttressing his power base. Ngculu's alliance with premier Ebrahim Rasool - cemented by their common support for Mbeki - has gained ground. Now Ngculu has the support of four of the six regions in backing Mbeki. He is confident about winning an Mbeki nomination at the next provincial general council.
Mcebisi Skwatsha - secretary
Skwatsha, once a powerful and popular leader, is losing influence in the province. This is mainly because of his support for Zuma. Realising that his power is slipping away, Skwatsha's loyalty to Zuma is said to be on the wane. Skwatsha is part of the once powerful Gugulethu cabal - led by Tony Yengeni, the former ANC chief whip - which has previously dominated the province. Some people still think that Yengeni's popularity will spell some magic for Zuma.
FREE STATE (363 delegates)
Ace Magashule - chairman
In the current succession battle, Magashule has mastered the art of fence-sitting - not claiming support for either Mbeki or Zuma. He has been overlooked four times for the position of premier despite his popularity in the province. He has blamed both Zuma and Mbeki for this.
But he appears to be waiting to see on which side his bread is buttered before pronouncing on the leadership. His provincial executive committee has endorsed both Mbeki and Zuma, but without attaching positions to their names. This was confirmed by his deputy Pat Matosa.
Charlotte Lobe - secretary
Lobe is said to favour the continuity of the Mbeki presidency - a view initially shared by a faction in the ANC Women's League, of which Lobe is an executive member. But she is quick to point out that: "I'm in no camp". Lobe has also kept quiet about the succession battle. She is considered to be influential in the province, but less powerful than Magashule.
NORTHERN CAPE (220 delegates)
John Block - chairman
Said to have been victimised by the Scorpions on a charge of corruption, Block was re-elected as provincial chairman and has moved closer to Zuma, though the provincial focus appears to be on internal party spats and tender wars.
Block's detractors claim the ANC's culture of continuity is the reason Block has retained his position. They insist that he doesn't hold significant power over the membership and is viewed cautiously by most senior leaders. But Block is determined to sway the province towards Zuma - with whom he will share a public platform on Sunday at a youth league rally in Galeshewe.
Neville Mompati - secretary
Mompati is serving his third term as provincial secretary, perhaps testimony of his support for Mbeki. He has promised Mbeki supporters four of the five regions. But their advances in the province were dealt a blow by the recent disbanding of the Mbeki-supporting Siyanda (Upington) region.
But the appointment of Mosiuoa Lekota, the Mbeki flak-catcher and minister of defence, to the task team to oversee the administration of the Siyanda region might be a strategic move by the Mbeki grouping.
GAUTENG (354 delegates)
Paul Mashatile - chairman
The acid test for Mashatile's leadership was his defeat of Angie Motshekga - who contested the position on a Zuma ticket - during a tough race two weeks ago. But unlike most chairmen caught between Mbeki and Zuma, Mashatile is convinced that the "third way" (Tokyo Sexwale) is the only route to unite the party.
Yet he has dismissed this as speculation. He managed to charm the provincial youth league into backing him, even though the organisation nationally supports Zuma and loathes Sexwale.
Mashatile has been in talks with the Mbeki faction but wants them to accommodate Sexwale - as ANC treasurer - in return for his support. Nevertheless, Mbeki is concerned, according to an ANC executive, about allegations of corruption against Mashatile.
David Makhura - secretary
He is a provincial secretary who has managed to steer clear of the succession battle (at least in public). Although the Mbeki supporters don't count him as one of their own, they are also not convinced that he is a Zuma man.
Makhura is said to be loyal to Kgalema Motlanthe, the ANC's secretary-general, who is close to Zuma. Makhura said his personal preference does not matter, and he denies being a Motlanthe man. Those who know him say he prefers unity to loyalty.
LIMPOPO (400 delegates)
Sello Moloto - chairman
He is loathed for saying Zuma's personal problems should not be a focus of the party. He is constantly clashing with the youth league, which has called for his resignation. Four of the five regions differ with him because of his preference for Mbeki.
Moloto's involvement in the communist party has not helped his popularity ratings in the province. Two regional leaders anonymously said they would campaign to replace him next year with his junior cabinet colleague Maite Nkoana-Mashabane.
Cassel Mathale - secretary
His partying lifestyle when he was with the youth commission has endeared him to the younger crowd. He has clashed with Moloto on several occasions, and they hold polar opposite views on succession and the direction of the provincial ANC and government.
Mathale is working hard, with former cabinet members passed over or axed by Moloto and the premier's predecessor Ngoako Ramatlhodi, to mobilise for Zuma.
MPUMALANGA (325 delegates)
Thabang Makwetla - chairman
According to a Makwetla confidante, the chairman has given up on swaying the conference towards Mbeki. Although he won the province by a landslide in 2005, all regions reject his views on succession. The province has gone so far as to suggest a limit on the term of the ANC presidency.
Most of his cabinet organised a dinner for Zuma while Makwetla attended an SA Communist Party gala dinner organised for Mbeki in Gauteng. Even his youth league and MK credentials had not rescued him from the Zuma siege. He has tried to appoint Zuma sympathisers to his cabinet, but this has not softened views about him.
Lucas Mello - secretary
He was chastised by the provincial leadership for deviating from a Zuma-sympathetic line. This was after a provincial council proposed a term limitation for the ANC presidency aimed at dealing with Mbeki. But he is seen as a fence-sitter and "a safe option". He tries to portray unity in the province but he is not influential.
Mello, who won two terms, hides under the wings of David Mabuza, his former boss and provincial deputy chairperson, who is an influential Zuma campaigner.
NORTH WEST (280 delegates)
Edna Molewa - chairwoman
Her positions as premier and ANC and women's league provincial chairwoman make her powerful but her influence is undermined by factionalism in the province. She has clashed with the provincial council recently, which criticised her for not appointing another faction's favourite to her cabinet.
Zuma and Sexwale campaigners are working hard on the ground to exploit these factional divisions. Molewa does not believe in Zuma leadership. But her province became a pariah when it deviated from the majority view at the 2005 national general council on how Zuma was treated after he was fired by Mbeki.
Supra Mahumapelo - secretary
He is the brain behind the Mbeki campaign in the province. This is despite his intermittent skirmishes with Molewa on governance matters.
Yet his faction - the Taliban - has managed to take control of several regions, hence imposing its power in the provincial executive committee and appearing to be dominating Molewa. One union leader described him as brutal and someone who roots out those he disagrees with, especially those who are close to Popo Molefe, the former premier.