Dr Sizo Nkala
On September 5 the UK will know who between the Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss and former Chancellor (equivalent to Minister of Finance) Rishi Sunak will replace the outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Johnson announced his resignation from the position of Prime Minister on July 7 following a string of scandals and rising standard of living that led to his party’s loss of confidence in his leadership.
Sunak and Truss remained standing as the final two contenders after surviving five rounds of voting by the Conservative Party MPs which saw six other initial candidates fall by the wayside.
The new leader of the Conservative Party will be decided by the votes of approximately 160 000 party members. The demographics of the membership show that about 44% of the members are over 65, while 97% are white and most of them voted to leave the EU.
Voting began on July 22 after the two final candidates had emerged. The ballot will be closed on September 2.
Sunak and Truss have been traversing the length and breadth of the UK campaigning for the Conservative membership votes.
While Sunak enjoyed the support of the MPs, he has found the going tough among the broader membership, if the polls are anything to go by.
According to the latest YouGov survey on the preferences of the Conservative membership, Truss led Sunak by 32 percentage points as 66% of the survey respondents said they would vote for the Foreign Secretary compared to 34% who leaned towards Sunak.
Coming from the Indian minority ethnic group, it was always a tough ask for Sunak, of Indian roots, to win the hearts and minds of a majority white Conservatives.
However, Sunak and Truss have adopted different stances on key policy issues such as taxes, defence, immigration, housing, Brexit, climate change and education, among others.
Both candidates have promised huge tax cuts for the UK citizens as a way of cushioning them from inflation and the rising cost of living. Truss has been more aggressive in her tax policies, promising to cut income tax and VAT and reversing the rise in corporate tax and the national health insurance and removing the green levy on the energy bills to make energy more affordable. It comes across as a populist pledge to put more money in the citizens’ pockets.
On his part, Sunak has vowed to reduce the basic tax rate from 20% to 16%, remove VAT on energy costs, and cut investment taxes. However, unlike Truss, who has pledged to implement tax cuts as soon as she assumes power, Sunak appears to favour a gradual approach, preferring to get inflation (currently at 9%) under control.
Truss has said she would fund the tax cuts through more borrowing, a strategy Sunak believes would be bad for the economy in the long run. On tackling climate change, both candidates support the UK target to be carbon neutral by 2050 although Truss insists on doing it in a way that will not negatively affect businesses and consumers.
Both candidates support the UK’s exit from the EU and have committed to further review the remaining EU regulations in the UK. Sunak has attacked Truss for voting to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, but she has said she regrets it and has long changed her mind on the issue. Switching positions on such fundamental issues casts Truss as an ideological inconsistent politician who follows the crowd.
Truss has pledged to be tough on illegal immigration and vowed to increase defence spending to 3% of the GDP by the end of the decade. She also promised to do all she can to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. In her role as Foreign Secretary, she helped co-ordinate Britain’s policy on the Ukraine war. She has pledged to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Sunak has also talked tough on illegal immigration, insisting that the UK must have strong control of its borders. On defence, he has said he will stick to spending 2% of the GDP as required by Nato. He has called PM Johnson’s decision to increase defence spending to 2.5% of the GDP arbitrary but was quick to highlight that he would be open to increasing spending if necessary. He has also expressed support for Ukraine and supported sanctions against Russia. Both candidates subscribe to the “China Threat” theory and have promised to be tough on Beijing.
On Monday, one of them will move into the Prime Minister’s office. Barring a miracle, Liz Truss appears set to win the race. She will have to navigate the UK through a complex global environment, contain the economic crisis at home and try to unify her party.
Uppermost in her mind would be placing the Conservative Party in a better position to win the next general election scheduled to be held no later than January 28, 2025. According to the latest polls the Labour Party leads the Conservative Party by 13 percentage points. Whoever becomes the next Conservative leader has their work cut out for them.
* Dr Sizo Nkala is a research fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies.