LONDON - The ousting of Jacob Zuma has
fuelled hopes that South Africa can lift itself out of the
economic doldrums, but investors flag a number of things that
should be top of new President Cyril Ramaphosa's to-do list.
1/ UNIFY, AND RULE
Following the divisive years under Zuma, investors want to
see Ramaphosa unite the leadership and the ruling ANC party more
widely, and put swiftly a competent leadership team into place.
He will have to be ruthless and move fast, with the
country's budget due next Wednesday seen as crucial if the
country has any chance of clinging on to its one remaining
investment grade credit rating.
There also needs to be a sense among the population that the
corruption that has been at the heart of many of South Africa's
troubles in recent years is really being addressed.
"Maybe we see the entire cabinet steeping down," says
Michael Bolliger, the top emerging market specialist in the
Chief Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management.
READ MORE: NEWS JUST IN: Ramaphosa sworn in as president
Zuma didn't help by changing finance minister five times
during his nine year tenure, with markets turning particularly
rowdy in late 2015 when he disposed of the widely respected
Pravin Gordhan and replaced him with Malusi Gigaba.
"Everyone will look for Ramaphosa to build a strong cabinet
and get rid of the Zuma factions," added Anders Faergemann,
portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments in London. "The next
step will be who will replace Gigaba as the new finance
minister."
2/ IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID
One of the things that investors, economists and the rating
agencies all agree on is that the economy needs to get going
again to help stabilise the country's finances, create jobs
again and ease the process of reform.
The budget next week will be key for that says rating agency
said S&P Global's sovereign analyst Gardner Rusike. "While there
are issues with the fiscal consolidation, at the heart of the
challenges is this very low pace of economic growth that South
Africa is experiencing."
Ramaphosa's number crunchers will also have to find a way of
increasing the country's tax base says Salman Ahmed, chief
investment strategist at Lombard Odier. "The fiscal deficit has
to be reined in and some pain has to be taken."
3/ STATE-OWNED FIRMS
Cleaning up cash-strapped and scandal-plagued state-owned
firms such as power utility Eskom is seen by investors as one of
the keys to mending South Africa's battered public finances.
The potential for more costly bailouts was one of the
reasons the preliminary budget in October saw the estimate for
the country's fiscal deficit hit an eight-year high.
Foreign investors say they need to see a decisive action
plan from the government to tackle struggling state firms which
also include South African Airways and the post office, but
especially the country's sole power provider Eskom.
"A big question mark is whether those (medium-term budget)
figures are sustainable or whether they could be revised higher,
which is our fear," said Sergey Dergachev, senior portfolio
manager at Union Investment.
S&P's Rusike said it would also be one of the things he
would be watching out for in next week's budget. "It is more to
do with demonstrating that the government is committed and
implementing the governance reforms they have outlined, not only
at Eskom but all the other weak state-owned enterprises."