Who's reached the end of the line?

Published Oct 27, 2003

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Suppose the Earth is a stage and politicians are major actors. Given their influence, the stage in our country is set for more drama.

And, as the mercury rises and the country's elections draw closer, this drama will certainly get more exciting.

As is the case with plays, actors come and go - for different reasons. Some disappear because of natural attrition, others retire, others opt for business, and some are fall-guys in the bitter battles that form the country's political undercurrent.

The South African political script appears laden with twists and turns if recent developments are a measure.

The Hefer Commission, set up by President Thabo Mbeki to investigate allegations of apartheid-era spying and abuse of office by certain members of the government, has been awash with intrigue.

Deputy President Jacob Zuma appears to have confounded critics when he emerged a popular leader in the Free State and KwaZulu Natal. This is according to the results of votes which reveal which people should represent the party in various legislatures after next year's elections.

This list process, as it is known, has come to be a barometer on the popularity of leaders in the party. And so far, Zuma, despite what many described as a “cloud left hanging over his head” following a recent corruption investigation against him, has come out more popular than even Mbeki.

Some have said that his placing as candidate number one by the two provinces is an expression of a desire to have him as a leader of the party.

As more provinces release their lists this week and the following weeks, it will then be clear what message ANC members want to send to their leadership.

But as drama unfolds in our political scene, who are the current crop of politicians who will be left standing when the Hefer Commission of Inquiry and the country's elections have come and gone?

Who is set to exit or be redeployed - and for what reasons?

Anxious moments, it would appear, are upon us.

Justice Minister Penuell Maduna, who opted to call it a day in the wake of the acrimony in his party, the ANC, following the corruption/spy allegations, is set for an uneventful exit.

Maduna has said he will not be available to serve another term in Mbeki's cabinet after next year's elections. Maduna and his family seem to prefer the peace that eluded them in the wake of the “prima facie” case against Zuma that was not “winnable”.

It is worth noting that it was this comment (prima facie case that is not winnable), made by head of the National Prosecuting Authority Bulelani Ngcuka and supported by Maduna, which raised the ire of ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe and pitted Maduna and Ngcuka against the rest.

The comments came after an investigation into allegations that Zuma had solicited a R500 000 per annum bribe from a French company in return for protection during an investigation into possible corruption involving the government's multi-billion rand arms procurement deal.

Even Maduna's public announcement that he was quitting was met with outright hostility in some circles.

He was accused, not least of all by Motlanthe, of presuming that he (Maduna) would make it to cabinet or parliament regardless of the current list processes (nominations and election of eligible persons to be returned to the various legislatures) going on in the ANC.

But Maduna is not the only political actor who will vacate the stage next year.

Dullah Omar, transport minister, is another. Due to ill-health, Omar is widely expected not to be available for any cabinet positions, or even for parliamentary work.

There are suggestions that Education Minister Kader Asmal (69) is another potential player to leave the stage, with age working against him.

Mangosuthu Buthelezi, leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party and Minister of Home Affairs, is one of several who have served their second terms. He prefers to keep everybody guessing on whether he will still serve in the ANC-controlled cabinet given the turbulence of his party's relations with

the ANC.

If his party still takes part in the ANC cabinet next year, he will be deployed to another portfolio as the constitution prohibits people from occupying the same portfolio for more than two terms.

Frene Ginwala (71), another colourful politician and independent thinker, has served two consecutive terms. She is likely to retire.

Ronnie Kasrils, another long-serving ANC cadre and the Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry, is also set to exit the political stage. Whether or not Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, who ascended to that position in 1996 after Derek Keys retired, will be kept is anybody's guess.

No doubt Manuel is a super-performer. It is unclear if Mbeki will want to keep Manuel on for an additional two years in the same portfolio before he is moved, as per constitutional stipulations.

Three premiers have also served their two terms and are keenly awaiting their redeployments.

Ngoako Ramatlhodi (Limpopo), Popo Molefe (North-West) and Manne Dipico (Northern Cape), are the ANC's set of premiers who have stood the test of time.

Ramatlhodi, a revered Oliver Tambo-era struggle icon, survived several bruising encounters with veterans of the struggle and Johny-come-latelys in a province wracked by ethnic divisions.

Molefe, a former leader of the United Democratic Front, survived several battles with some of the former exiled leaders.

It is hardly surprising that Dipico's leadership has not faced a formidable challenge, given his hands-on approach to leadership and a reputation for non-tolerance to corruption.

He is now firmly in charge of the ANC's election strategy for next year, having succeeded the late youth leader Peter Mokaba.

It can only be clear when all the ANC provinces have released their final lists who the final players will be.

But for now the stage appears set, with all the props in order. Brace yourself for the next action-filled six months. Indeed times change, and we with them.

WHO'S LEAVING THE POLITICAL STAGE?

Manne Dipico

A man of humble beginnings, Manne Emsley Dipico has, for many in the Northern Cape, been an emblem of unity and good governance.

Dipico started off as a mine worker at De Beers, but he was swiftly dismissed for leading a strike a few months into the job. He also worked as a cleaner at Barlows Caterpillars in 1980 to raise money for his studies at Fort Hare University - a time when Fort Hare was a melting pot of political activity. It was a natural development, given his interest in politics and his membership of the Azanian Student Organisation, that he would start doing underground work for the ANC in the Eastern Cape. This led to multiple sojourns in Pollsmoor and Diepkloof prisons.

As a multi-lingual “man of deeds”, Dipico has been able to unite the Nama, Khoi, Tswana, coloureds and Xhosas who form part of the 1,1-million population of the province.

He has also developed a reputation as a man who will not tolerate corruption. Recently, Northern Cape Transport MEC and “jazz maniac”John Block was told to apologise to the nation for using R50 000 of taxpayers' money to attend jazz festivals.

Ngoako Ramatlhodi

Of the three premiers set to relinquish authority after serving for two terms, Ngoako Abel Ramatlhodi has faced, and survived, the most challenges to his authority.

He arrived back in the country in June 1991, after serving under the late ANC leader Oliver Tambo as political secretary and secretary of the ANC's Control Mission in Lusaka. Ramatlhodi came back in the then Northern Transvaal to a majority of members who knew little about him. Some questioned his leadership, and won only to lose to him later. SA Communist Party veteran, George Mashamba, beat Ramatlhodi for the position of ANC chairperson in the then Northern Province. Dr Joe Phaahla and Elias Motsoaledi tried but failed.

Ramatlhodi's major challenge was initially to integrate administrations of the former Lebowa, Venda, Gazankulu and Transvaal Provincial Administration into a single, functional and stable government. The other was to turn the economy of the province around so it benefits a majority of its citizens. Much of the war on economic regression has been won - but another to boost job creation is proving difficult.

Popo Molefe

Popo Molefe, like some occupying senior ANC positions, is a founder member of the Black People's Convention (BPC), a predecessor of the Azanian People's Organisation.

He joined BPC, in 1973 and joined the SA Student Movement the following year. He became chairperson of Azapo's Soweto branch in 1979 until 1980. Through his anti-apartheid activities, Molefe became a member of the Committee of Ten during the Soweto rebellion and eventually became a key figure (national secretary) in the United Democratic Front in 1983. He was later arrested along with 22 other comrades, but released on appeal.

When political parties were unbanned, Molefe became a a member of the ANC's national executive, a member of the national working committee (1991) and ANC chairperson in the North West (1994). Apart from feeble challenges from Rockie Malebane Metsing, who has since disappeared from public life, Molefe's hold on power has not faced any stiff challenges. But allegations that he had abused a relative threatened his public standing.The North West, like most parts of SA, has areas of massive poverty and areas of industrial development.

Penuell Maduna

Penuell Maduna is arguably one of South Africa's most educated current members of cabinet.

Having completed his B Juris at the University of SA and a LLB in Harare, Maduna completed his LLM at Wits University and received his Higher Diploma in Tax Law at Wits before acquiring his PhD in Constitutional Law. He's also been a visiting scholar of Constitutional Law at Columbia University Law School.

Like Molefe, Maduna was a leader of a committee to revive the Black People's Convention-aligned South African Students Organisation (Saso) at the University of Zululand.

Declared a terrorist, he was arrested several times in the '70s until he went to Tanzania in exile in 1980.

Maduna served in several structures that ushered in the first non-racial elections in 1994. As Maduna makes way, he leaves behind a department that has registered major successes in making the judiciary accessible to all. Some in rural areas, however, still travel considerable distances to get to courts.

Also, the security of the courts remains a problem, though Maduna's department says this is a remnant of apartheid that will be overcome.

Dullah Omar

It was soon after he became an attorney in 1960 that he started helping deprived communities. But it was after his admission as an advocate of the Supreme Court that he started defending anti-apartheid activists and getting personally involved in furthering the aims of banned parties.

He became national vice-chairperson and president of the United Democratic Front. He was elected ANC chairperson in the Western Cape (1996), Minister of Justice (1994), and Minister of Transport (1999).

Omar's current department faces seasonal challenges because of the increasing rate of road accidents during December and Easter and occasional truck accidents during the year.

He also faces a challenge from taxi owners, whose mini-buses are seen as major contributors to road fatalities. Taxi owners have also strongly objected to the taxi recapitalisation programme.

Corruption with regards to drivers' licenses is another challenge facing his department.

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