Brussels - The chances that the UK will make a disruptive
break from its biggest market have grown with the resignation of the British
envoy to the European Union, an experienced Brussels insider who was reviled by
leading Brexit supporters.
Ivan Rogers quit as Britain’s permanent representative to
the 28-nation EU urging officials working for the UK in Brussels to keep challenging
“muddled thinking” from colleagues in London. He warned the government lacked
experienced negotiators and called for stronger working relationships between
her London-based team and the U.K.’s permanent post in the Belgian capital.
Supporters of as close EU ties as possible bemoaned
his departure as a “body blow,” while backers of a clean break from the bloc
cheered his going as a sign the UK government is committed to regaining
complete control of immigration, laws and budget - even if that means fraying
trade ties.
“Britain’s partners will take this as a sign that May’s
government is heading for a hard Brexit which puts sovereignty ahead of
economic integration with the EU,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre
for European Reform.
Prime Minister Theresa May needs to be told the
“uncomfortable” truth about the difficulties of negotiating Brexit, Rogers said
in a message announcing his resignation to staff in Brussels on Tuesday.
“I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded
arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the
truth to those in power,” Rogers said in the note, obtained by the BBC and
published on its website. “The government will only achieve the best for the
country if it harnesses the best experience we have.”
Rogers’ comments show the size of the task facing May’s
government less than three months before she is due to trigger the formal start
of Brexit negotiations. He is the most senior figure from the UK’s politically
neutral civil service to voice concerns over preparations for the talks.
Political minefield
Dismissed by Brexit hardliners as an EU fanatic, Rogers
was viewed by advocates of a softer form of Brexit as an experienced asset with
strong diplomatic contacts and an openness to find common ground. His sudden
exit at such a delicate juncture signals a hardening of positions, raising the
chances the UK will quit the single market and revert to a tariffs regime.
Last month, May’s office was forced to downplay remarks
attributed to Rogers saying that it could take a decade to negotiate a
free-trade deal with the EU. Her spokesman clarified that Rogers was merely
communicating to London the views of other EU governments. The episode showed
how his observations, however nuanced, inevitably risked exploding when they
landed in the political minefield of Brexit.
On Tuesday, May’s government said Rogers was scheduled to
depart at the end of his term in November but had resigned early to enable a
replacement to be appointed before exit negotiations begin.
Read also: Brexit: May plans timetable for EU divorce
In his note to staff, Rogers outlined concerns about
shortcomings in preparations for the talks. “Senior ministers, who will decide
on our positions, issue by issue, also need from you detailed, unvarnished -
even where this is uncomfortable - and nuanced understanding of the views,
interests and incentives of the other 27” member states of the EU, he wrote.
‘Rapid resolution’
The structure of the UK’s negotiating team needs “rapid
resolution” and the “working methods” to create a seamless process between
London and Brussels need strengthening, Rogers warned. “Serious multilateral
negotiating experience” is “in short supply” in the UK government - unlike in
the European Commission, which will lead the EU side in the talks, he said.
In a thinly-veiled rebuke to Brexit-supporting
politicians, he added: “Contrary to the beliefs of some, free trade does not
just happen.” It will depend on the terms of the deals that the UK can strike,
he said. “I shall advise my successor to continue to make these points.”
Clean Brexit
Rogers’ resignation fuelled the view the UK could opt for
a full break with the EU’s single market and customs union. His successor will
play a leading role in May’s negotiations with the bloc and the choice will
offer further clues on the direction of talks.
Former UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said he
welcomed the resignation and called for a “complete clear-out” of the Foreign
Office, which has traditionally been seen as sympathetic to EU membership.
Peter Mandelson, a former European trade commissioner, described Rogers’
departure as “a serious loss".
Read also: May keen on “differing views on Brexit
With the debate between a hard and soft Brexit raging on,
it’s not just about the degree to which trade ties will be maintained but about
how quickly the process can be completed. More pro-EU voices tend to say an
exit cannot be rushed and will get tangled in a legal web of regulation
minutiae.
“Ivan was a rare voice of wisdom and sanity in all this
because he knew what the stakes were,” said Paul Adamson, chairman of the Brussels-based
Forum Europe. “The picture is much more confused now; much more complicated.”
Pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers like John Redwood
disagree. He told the BBC he thinks the “task is pretty straightforward.” For
him, whoever takes over from Rogers should head into battle sharing that
assessment.
-With assistance
from Alex Morales.
BLOOMBERG