Seoul - North Korea's second missile test
on Thursday signals it is serious about developing new,
short-range weapons that could be used early and effectively in
any war with South Korea and the United States, analysts
studying images of the latest launches say.
Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the first
flight of a previously untested weapon - a relatively small,
fast missile experts believe will be easier to hide, launch, and
manoeuvre in flight.
Photos released by state media on Friday showed Thursday's
test involved the same weapon.
The tests have increased tensions after the last US-North
Korea summit collapsed in February in Hanoi with no agreement
over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
programme.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said late on Thursday
the launches seemed like a protest over the failed summit, while
North Korea has defended the tests as routine and self
defensive.
Some analysts say the multiple tests show the missiles
aren't only for political show.
"This second test solidifies that these launches are not
just to stir the pot and elicit a U.S. response to resume
negotiations," said Grace Liu, one of a team of missile experts
at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) in
California. "They are developing a reliable, operable missile
that can defeat missile defences and conduct a precision strike
in South Korea."
DEFEATING MISSILE DEFENCES
The US and South Korean responses to the launches have
been muted, with U.S. President Donald Trump and other officials
emphasising the missiles are not the large, intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the United
States.
But analysts said the military applications of the new
missiles should not be underestimated.
"The Trump administration keeps downplaying these missiles
because they are not ICBMs, but even though they can’t reach the
U.S. mainland, it’s missiles like these that will start the
war," said Melissa Hanham, a weapons expert at Datayo, which
tracks international security threats.
"They are small, easy to hide, easy to manoeuvre and you
can’t tell what kind of warhead they are carrying. They could
carry a nuclear weapon."
In a preliminary report on Wednesday, the North Korea
tracking website 38 North said the new missile looks similar to
Russia's SS-26 Iskander missile, and could exploit gaps in South
Korean and American missile defence coverage.
The United States and South Korea field Patriot and THAAD
missile batteries designed to shoot down various ballistic and
cruise missiles, but their capabilities have been disputed.
While the origin of the North Korean missile remains
unclear, a team of analysts at CNS told Reuters that Thursday's
test confirmed the missile is capable of manoeuvring to elude
defences and protect its launch crew from detection.
"You can tell from the low apogee that this missile
manoeuvres a bit in boost to defeat missile defences and
aircraft hunting the launcher," said Jeffrey Lewis of CNS.
Michael Duitsman, a rocket propulsion expert with the team,
said North Korean state media photos of the launch show likely
thrust vanes and steerable fins that guide the missile with
precision and allow it to manoeuvre through much of its flight.
While Saturday's missile was fired from a transporter
erector launcher (TEL) vehicle with wheels, Thursday's test
featured a tracked vehicle.
Use of a tracked vehicle, which North Korea has more
experience building, suggests it may plan to deploy a large
number of the missiles and launchers, said Joshua Pollack,
editor of The Nonproliferation Review.
"This seems to be their only mass-production option for
highly capable TELs at the moment," he said.
The missile uses solid fuel, which allows the weapon to be
easily moved and fired more quickly than those using liquid
fuel, analysts said.
In the end, the new missiles add a new level of
unpredictability to an already tense situation, Hanham said.
"If North Korea pulls out (an ICBM) everyone knows it’ll be
launched with a nuke," she said. "These little missiles you
don’t know, so it’s hard to be prepared."
POLITICAL SHOCKWAVES
The new weapon's manoeuvrability and low flying has led some
South Korean officials to hesitate to label the weapon a
"ballistic missile," a weapon that would likely violate United
Nations Security Council resolutions.
"Given its low altitude, more careful analysis is required,"
said ruling party lawmaker Ahn Gyu-baek, citing military
officials. "One should also be careful to not aggravate the
situation with hasty actions."
Ahn said South Korean military officials had assessed a
number of potential political motives behind the missile
launches. Those included increasing pressure for sanctions
relief, and protesting Seoul's military buildup including the
purchase of new F-35 fighter aircraft as well as joint military
drills by the United States and South Korea, which North Korea
complained about in statements defending the tests.
The tests also likely held a message for domestic audiences
designed to boost support for Kim's government, he said.
"The Kim regime is determined to fight pressure with
pressure," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University
in Seoul. "It is threatening to raise regional tensions and
create political problems for Moon and Trump if not offered
economic concessions it failed to win in Hanoi."
While Kim may not return to launching ICBMs or testing
nuclear weapons immediately, he may seek other provocative ways
to break the stalemate, Pollack said.
"Kim Jong Un has given the United States until the end of
the year to rethink its approach," he said. "But if they don’t
get a meaningful response to these tests, maybe they’ll try to
push the envelope further."