London - British Prime Minister Theresa
May is facing likely defeat in parliament on Tuesday when she
asks lawmakers to approve her Brexit deal - a decision that
would trigger huge uncertainty about the future of Britain's
exit from the European Union.
May has warned that rejecting her deal opens up the
possibility of Brexit being stopped, or that Britain leaves
disruptively without a deal. She has promised to respond quickly
to any defeat.
So what could happen next if she loses?
BACK TO PARLIAMENT
May must submit a new plan for Britain's next steps by the
end of Jan. 21. It is not clear what May's 'Plan B' is, but some
local media have reported she would ask parliament to vote again
on the deal, perhaps after seeking another set of reassurances
from the EU.
Some lawmakers have floated the idea that parliament could,
in a temporary break from convention in Britain, take control of
the process away from the government and hand it to a committee
of senior lawmakers from across the political spectrum.
It is not clear that this plan is technically possible, or
whether it has enough support to succeed. The government said
any attempt to prevent it from meeting its legal obligation to
deliver an orderly EU exit would be extremely concerning.
RESIGN
May could resign as leader of the Conservative Party,
triggering an internal contest to replace her without a general
election.
OUSTED
May defeated an attempt to oust her as leader of the
Conservative Party in December, winning a confidence vote by 200
votes to 117. The result means her position as leader of the
party cannot be challenged for 12 months.
VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE
The opposition Labour Party has said it will call a vote of
no confidence in the government if May's deal is rejected, but
has not specified exactly when.
If a majority of lawmakers vote against May's government,
Labour would have 14 days to prove, by a vote, that it could
command a majority and form its own government. That would allow
Labour to take control of the country without an election.
.
BACK TO THE BALLOT
If May's government loses a confidence vote and Labour is
unable to form a new government, an election is called. May
could also call a general election herself if two-thirds of
lawmakers in parliament agree to it. May has said that a general
election is not in the national interest.
LONGER-TERM OPTIONS:
SECOND REFERENDUM
The route to a second referendum on Brexit - or a People's
Vote - is unclear.
But, unless the plan to give control of the process to
parliament is successful, it would require the backing of the
government of the day. A new referendum can be called only if it
is approved by parliament.
With May dead-set against a second referendum, and the
opposition Labour Party not committed to one (but not ruling one
out), a second referendum would need either a change in prime
minister, a change in government, or an abrupt change in policy.
An increasingly vocal contingent of lawmakers from across
the political spectrum supports a fresh vote to break the
impasse in parliament. But, so far they have not been able to
prove there is a majority in parliament for this view.
Even if parliament did agree in principle to a second
referendum, Britain would then have to ask for an extension to
its timetable for leaving the EU.
DELAY OR CANCEL BREXIT
The government could seek to extend the negotiating period
with the EU to give it time to try to reach a better deal, hold
a general election, or conduct a second referendum.
The government could also withdraw its notice of intention
to leave the EU, which the European Court of Justice has ruled
it can do without consent of other EU countries.
May has said she does not want to delay Britain's exit from
the EU, and will not revoke the notice of intention to leave.