BRASILIA/MEXICO CITY - The toll from
Covid-19 could rise to 438,000 deaths in Latin America by
October if prevention measures are not kept up, the World Health
Organization's regional director for the Americas Carissa
Etienne warned on Tuesday.
Fatalities so far in Latin America have reached 113,844 or
almost one fifth of the number of people who have died globally,
according to mapping by Reuters.
The Americas is the world epicenter of the coronavirus
pandemic and the toll for the whole region could almost treble
to 637,000 by October 1, the WHO official said, though she
cautioned that mathematical model projections should not be
taken literally but only as planning guides.
Under current conditions, the pandemic is expected to peak
in Chile and Colombia by mid-July, but in Argentina, Brazil,
Bolivia and Peru not until August, and Costa Rica will not
flatten its curve of infection until October, she said.
Countries, states and cities that relax restrictions too
soon can be flooded with new Covid-19 cases, Etienne and other
directors of the WHO's regional branch, the Pan American Health
Organization said in a virtual briefing from Washington.
"Complacency is our enemy in the fight against Covid-19,"
she said, adding: "The battle is tough but it's far from lost."
In the United States, Washington state and New York are
seeing very low numbers of new cases and deaths, but 27 other
states are reporting exponential growth, Etienne said.
Several Caribbean countries and territories were able to
curb transmission completely and have reported no new cases for
several weeks, but they need to remain vigilant for months to
come, Etienne said.
This past week Manaus, in Brazil saw its first day without
reporting new deaths from Covid-19, after weeks of dealing with
high mortality in the largest city in the Amazon.
Brazil has the second most fatal and widespread outbreak in
the Americas after the United States and WHO directors said they
have repeatedly asked the South American country to increase
testing and have a consistent message to population.
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the gravity
of coronavirus and criticized quarantine and social distancing
measures adopted by states and cities, sending a confusing
signal to Brazilians, public health experts say.
Countries must be prepared to adjust course quickly if the
epidemiological situation changes, the WHO director said.
Reopening is not merely a question of suspending travel
restrictions and stay-at-home orders. It requires ample testing
and adequate contact tracing to quickly detect and control new
outbreaks, she said.
The Americas region as a whole reported 5.1 million cases
and more than 247,000 deaths due to COVID-19 as of June 29.