CAPE TOWN – Wow, did those Jaguares save my rugby betting bacon last weekend?
Seven days is a long time in sports betting; I went from a super streak to potentially my worst one of the season.
The Jaguares was my bet of the week that they would beat the Brumbies by five or more points. And they just covered the five points. What they did was ensure that my weekend wasn’t a loss.
I am grateful for that result after the Stormers again defied me and made a mockery of my call that they had no price in beating the Bulls.
I had the Bulls to break their Newlands curse of not winning there since 2011. They didn’t come close and fair game to the Stormers.
I am starting to think they may well be my bogey team this season. They certainly haven’t done me any favours in SuperBru.
So I am not going to have a bet on the Stormers’ visit to Buenos Aires. I just don’t know which Stormers team will front the Jaguares. They hammered them early in the year at Newlands, but as we’ve seen with the tournament form that what happened a month ago between two teams isn’t always a barometer of what will happen on the return fixture.
It’s an interesting weekend of Super Rugby and my big play will be on the Bulls smashing the Waratahs in Pretoria.
The bookies are sleeping on this one. They have the Waratahs not to lose by more than eight points. I have the Bulls to win by 20-plus. I am putting down R2500 to win back R4750.
I would advise you to avoid trying to bet on too many matches and combine your bets and put it all in on the Bulls this weekend.
Admittedly, they were pretty awful against the Stormers, but the Bulls at home tend to go better than on the road.
The Waratahs are struggling. They were poor against the Sharks, the Israel Folau uncertainty has had a negative impact, and the team has also been hit by injuries.
They are missing too many players to even be competitive against the Bulls.
I will be doing some updates closer to the respective kick-offs, so please visit my website and Facebook page if you have any questions.
I tend to do some running bets in matches and you may find value there over the weekend.
My SuperBru picks to give you an idea of my thinking:
Crusaders v Sharks (9.35am SA time kick-off): Crusaders by 17 points
Reds v Sunwolves (11.45am): Reds by 13
Hurricanes v Rebels (7.15am): Hurricanes by 13
Highlanders v Chiefs (9.35am): Highlanders by 11
Brumbies v Blues (11.45am): Blues by one (but I flipped a coin on this one)
Bulls v Waratahs (3.05pm): Bulls by 21
Jaguares v Stormers (9.40pm): Jaguares by 4
* Kevin Ferguson is the chief executive of Highbury Media and a leading sports betting specialist in South Africa.