A report by the Department of Basic Education has confirmed that over 40% of the million learners who start public school in the country each year drop out before reaching matric.
Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga faces criticism each year that the national matric results she announces hide the real performance of the public school system.
The report that the department released last week denied that Motshekga hides the data illustrating the figure of learners who do not reach matric.
“It is sometimes claimed that the fact that almost half of youths do not obtain a qualification at the Grade 12 level is something that the government does not report on,” it said. “This is not the case. The annual reports on the National Senior Certificate are very clear about these statistics, and moreover point out that South Africa’s statistics are not that different from those seen in other middle-income countries.”
Turning to the figures, the report said about 450 000 learners exit the school system before reaching matric. These drop-outs happen over the 12-year school period.
It stressed though that some of these learners end up obtaining the National Senior Certificate (NSC) or equivalent certificate.
“Just before the pandemic, around 1 million young South Africans were entering the schooling system each year, and 1 million leaving, meaning that total enrolments remained roughly at the 13 million level,” said the report.
“Before the pandemic, around 420 000 of the 1 million leaving would leave with the NSC, 30 000 would leave without the NSC but obtain it soon after leaving, for instance as a part-time examination candidate, around 95 000 would leave with just the statement of results (SoR) from the examination, and around 450 000 would leave before reaching Grade 12.
“The sum of ‘Leaving before Grade 12’ and ‘Leaving with just SoR’ in the pre-pandemic period comes to 55% of all leavers,” it added.
“At face value, this implies only 45% of every age cohort among the youth population obtained the NSC in Grade 12 or very soon thereafter.
“However, Stats SA household data point to around 57% of youths eventually obtaining some qualification at the Grade 12 level, though this may take some years.
“A qualification ‘at the Grade 12 level’ would include certain qualifications obtained from TVET colleges. Thus, TVET colleges make some difference, and some youths obtain the Amended Senior Certificate, for instance at a community centre, some years after leaving school.”
The department further “debunked” a report that suggested that half a million learners dropped out between 2020 and 2021 as a result of the pandemic.
The findings of the NIDS-CRAM report, which the department described as influential, were widely reported in the media last year.
“Unfortunately, statistics from the education sector’s own administrative systems were slow in coming out,” said the department’s report. However, when these statistics were produced, they did not support the finding that the pandemic had resulted in an additional half a million drop-outs.
“Specifically, when enrolment microdata from term 1 of 2020 were compared to those of term 1 of 2021, the conclusion was that there were around 46 000 fewer learners in 2021 than could be expected.”
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