Ipsos says ANC might get below 50% in 2024 regardless of leadership

Published Dec 15, 2022


Johannesburg - The ANC will achieve less than 50% of the vote in 2024, according to market research company Ipsos.

According to Ipsos, a total of 69% of eligible voters indicated that they are registered to vote, and of this group, 45% drew a cross next to the name of the ANC; 16% chose the DA, and 13% the EFF1.

“The fourth biggest party in the country, the IFP, would have scored 4% if the election were held the day after the interviewing was conducted. It is quite clear that the ANC will still be the biggest political party in the country after the 2024 national election,” said Ipsos.

Research showed that although some eligible voters have indicated that they still intend to register before the next election in 2024, the IEC and political parties will have their work cut out for them to inspire people to register, as 45% of eligible voters have said that currently there is no political party representing their views. Moreover, 43% of South Africans older than 18 are just not interested in politics and elections.

“For the ANC, the trials and tribulations of Eskom have brought an additional complication, and two-thirds (65%) of eligible voters think that ‘load shedding by Eskom will have a negative influence on support for the ANC’ and 45% are saying that they will ‘consider not voting in the future, as a result of the regular load shedding by Eskom’,” added Ipsos.

They have also delved into the upcoming ANC conference, which they say at this stage is only relevant in which way ANC delegates will vote, but they can share the opinions of the broader group of South Africans who have indicated that they will vote ANC in 2024.

“The opinions were also tested about two prominent members from the RET-faction of the ANC: Zweli Mkize, rating 4.6, and Ace Magashule, rating 3.9 out of 10.

“Regardless of the outcome at Nasrec, South Africans are despondent about the direction in which the country is moving, and only 14% say that the country is going in the right direction, while 68% say the country is going in the wrong direction. Some 18% have indicated that they either don’t know or are uncertain about this issue.

“If we only look at ANC supporters, the picture is not much different, with one in five (20%) agreeing that the country is going in the right direction and almost two-thirds (64%) expressing the opinion that we are going in the wrong direction — with 16% who do not know or who are uncertain,” said Ipsos.

The Star