Cape Town - Few critics would’ve expected today’s third Test between the Springboks and Wales at Cape Town Stadium (5.05pm kick-off) to be a series decider.
With the Welsh having lost their last Six Nations game against Italy and their United Rugby Championship sides battling in South Africa, it was supposed to be about by how much the Boks would win.
But after scraping home 32-29 at Loftus Versfeld in the first Test, Jacques Nienaber’s much-changed side came up short at the Free State Stadium, going down 13-12.
The Welsh are full of confidence going into the Cape Town Test, but the Boks will also be fired up to reward a boisterous home crowd.
Here are four factors that can decide the outcome…
1 Driving mauls
The Boks enjoyed some success in the second half in Bloemfontein, where they brought the heat through lineout mauls, which saw Bongi Mbonambi begin the comeback with a trademark try.
But they didn’t get much out of their set piece in Bloemfontein, and Nienaber and forwards coach Deon Davids will be banking on the first-choice hooker Mbonambi and locks Eben Etzebeth (celebrating his 100th Test cap) and Lood de Jager to provide more accuracy and continuity to set up those drives.
Captain Siya Kolisi’s decision-making will also come under the spotlight in that regard, as Handre Pollard came under fire in some quarters for choosing to go for the posts instead of kicking a few penalties into touch in Bloemfontein.
2 Springbok attack
Will it be a case of endless box-kicks and cross-kicks from the Bok attack again? It didn’t work in Test so far, with Wales’ accomplished fullback Liam Williams handling most of the “bombs” in the air easily.
The Boks would be better served by getting the ball into the hands of Lukhanyo Am, Makazole Mapimpi and Cheslin Kolbe than kicking it away.
But we all know that the South Africans have a certain style of playing, and they prefer to put boot to ball rather than going through the phases with ball-in-hand.
Pollard also needs to be sharper with his execution and decision-making, and let’s hope Jaden Hendrikse is given a bit more freedom to have a go around the fringes.
3 Referee interpretations
Matthew Carley of England will be in charge at Cape Town Stadium, and the Boks will need to play to the whistle and see what the match officials allow at the breakdowns in particular.
Wales openside flank Tommy Reffell has been outstanding in that regard, winning a number of penalties on the ground and slowing down the Bok possession.
The South African forwards need to climb in and do the same to their opponents.
4 Goal-kicking
Elton Jantjies had a nightmare outing in Pretoria, while Handre Pollard missed a crucial penalty in Bloemfontein as well.
Mind you, Wales captain Dan Biggar has also wasted a few scoring opportunities with the boot, but Gareth Anscombe won the second Test with a brilliant conversion from the touchline.
It could come down to a late penalty again…
@AshfakMohamed