London - The skies aircraft fly through are more bumpier today than four decades ago, scientists have found, after producing a new analysis showing that turbulence has increased as the climate changed.
New research from the University of Reading in the UK showed that clear-air turbulence, which is invisible and hazardous to aircraft, has increased in various regions across the world. The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
At a typical point over the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest flight routes, the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55%, from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence increased by 37%, from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
Warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions is increasing windshear in the jet streams, strengthening clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and globally.
“Turbulence makes flights bumpy and can occasionally be dangerous. Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150 million (R2.7 billion) to $500m annually in the US alone,” said researcher Mark Prosser.
Every additional minute spent travelling through turbulence increased wear-and-tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants, Prosser added.
While the US and North Atlantic hadexperienced the largest increases, the new study found that other busy flight routes over Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic also saw significant increases in turbulence.
“Following a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear-air turbulence in the future, we now have evidence suggesting that the increase has already begun,” said Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading.
We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems, to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades, the researchers noted.
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