AS ANALYSTS and experts weighed in on the crippling effect of load-shedding level 6, some caution that days without electricity may become a reality if Eskom continues to spiral out of control.
South Africans need to fight for their rights, they say as the utility battled to keep the lights on and the country experienced up to six hours of power outages a day this past week.
South Africa needs an additional generating capacity (power stations) of at least 4 000 to 6 000MW to end loadshedding, according to Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha.
Eskom pinned part of the blame on workers’ illegal strike. Eskom is offering a 7% increase but the workers are demanding a minimum of 8%.
Mantshantsha said the illegal strike only worsened an already constrained power system.
Gabriel Crouse, a policy analyst at the Institute of Race Relations, described South Africa’s current situation as teetering on the edge of chaos, comparing it to the daily scheduled load-shedding in Sri Lanka.
He said the South Asian country had been experiencing daily scheduled power cuts since the beginning of the year due to a worsening economic crisis.
He said stage 8 load-shedding was a realistic possibility. “We should take Sri-Lanka as a warning story, because once the minute to midnight (stage 8) phase hits, it would mean a total blackout. Something you can't just switch on overnight, so chances are we’ll sit in total darkness for days.”
Crouse said “the strike was just the match that sparked” load-shedding again. But it was a constant problem.
Crouse said he also did not see how 4000 to 6000MW would mean the end of load-shedding.
“Eskom is the ceiling over economic growth. In order to lift the ceiling, the power grid would need to grow by 5% year on year. It is also important to allow the private sector to generate power.”
Crouse said at the moment the power utility was producing half as much power to keep the country running.
“That means we are firing on half pistons, with an over-budgeted Kusile and Medupi power stations. I would say sell those to someone who knows how to fix it.”
Economist Ulrich Joubert warned that the severity of the situation in South Africa was immense and foreign direct investment had been hit.
“Now we will sit with problems like unemployment and with that comes crime, so here again – it's a losing situation. There are other countries which also find themselves having a shortage of fuel, but they planned well ahead and had contingency plans. If this carries on, it will only affect us all negatively.”
Experts warned that electricity load-shedding was also the primary constraint on South Africa’s economic growth process and believe the country’s medium- to long-term potential growth would be around 1.5% per annum, even though projected economy growth was 2%.
Economist Dawie Roodt estimated the economic loss as a result of load-shedding was well into hundreds of millions of rand in production daily. “For years now, a little monster was being raised and now it's at a point where it cannot be controlled. Load-shedding had been around long before the strikes.
“This lost production is something we will never be able to get back, because of the failure to maintain power stations and mismanagement.
“We also have politicians who do not have the balls to allow the proper people to fix this problem.”
Roodt said the scariest part was that if load-shedding should move up to its final level, stage 8, it would mean that the loss in production daily could amount to close to a R1 billion.
Roodt said change lay in the hands of every South African.
“We’re allowed to kick up a fuss, and that’s what we should do. We can’t simply be paying for mismanagement. The private sector should also be allowed to help out.”