Cape Town - The writing is on the wall and the ANC will dip below 50% in the 2024 polls, making the need to craft a coalition policy more urgent than before.
This was the call from political analysts who warned should the ANC fail to craft a coalition policy at the sixth policy conference the party could be caught with its pants down.
The calls come as the ANC in the Western Cape this week revealed it would push for the party to draw up a coalitions strategy and consider learning from the province which boasts more than ten years of being in the opposition benches.
The ANC in Western Cape has also offered to teach the party how to be in the opposition benches as the party loses its grip in some provinces.
The Interim Provincial Committee (IPC) policy co-ordination team led by MPL Nomi Nkondlo said the ANC needed to outline its principles and non-negotiables on coalitions.
“It is important that such a manifesto becomes the basis of our framework with the coalition partners so that we don't get into coalition at all costs,” Nkondlo said.
The ANC and the DA are already in coalition governments in several key municipalities in the province.
Nkondlo said a general approach to coalitions would not work.
Political analyst Dr Protas Madlala said the ANC had no choice but to formulate a strategy ahead of 2024.
“We are entering a new phase of coalitions, and it is getting worse for the ANC, they have no choice,” Madlala said.
Madlala said the ANC losing ground in key provinces such as KZN was a precursor for what would unfold in 2024.
“Even in KwaZulu-Natal, they lost 18 municipalities and that is where the voting base is for provincial and national. The ANC cannot be found wanting and unprepared for a coalition,” Madlala said.
The ANC at present has a stance on who it could go to bed including the UDM and the IFP.
“This is a relevant strategy, it’s important because if they go in blindly, it will be disastrous,” Madlala said.
In its discussion documents questions were raised about how the ANC can improve its approach to coalitions “given the challenge in working with parties who do not have the same strategic objectives as the ANC”.
Another political analyst, Ntsikelelo Breakfast, said the ANC’s interest in discussing a coalitions policy was proof it was no longer a dominant force.
“The hegemony of the ANC has been dealt a blow, the ANC has lost its grip and coalition formations are the future in this country,” Breakfast said.
He said the intention to discuss a coalitions strategy was proof that the ANC did not see the loss of key metros coming.
“That is why Jacob Zuma at some point said they are going to rule until Jesus comes back, they have been caught off-guard, if the ANC was sure of a two thirds majority why would they work on such a document knowing that they have a majority,” Breakfast said.
The move to craft a coalitions policy received mixed reactions from political parties.
UDM president Bantu Holomisa said he was pleased the ANC was finally working on a coalitions strategy.
Holomisa said several parties in Parliament including the DA, the ANC and ACDP had recently embarked on a study tour to investigate the inner workings of coalitions at a national level.
“We are busy, this is a hot debate amongst all parties and I am glad that the ANC has decided to discuss this because coalitions are here to stay. We just have to see how they will play out at a national level,” Holomisa said.
GOOD secretary general Brett Herron said developing a coalitions strategy made sense.
“In the current outcome of the local government elections, we are in partnership with the ANC in one municipality and we are in partnership with the DA in another municipality. The outcome of the elections would assist us in determining what coalitions or what partnerships we would enter into,” Herron said.
ACDP president Reverend Kenneth Meshoe said the ACDP would never consider a national partnership with the ANC.
“You cannot keep alive people who have destroyed the country. The corruption in them has affected every area of life, whoever was not corrupt if he joins them will be as corrupt as they are,” Meshoe said.
He said should the ACDP was willing to stay in opposition should there be no outright winner.
Weekend Argus