JOHANNESBURG – Economists expect the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data due today to show that South Africa’s moribund economy exited its first recession since 2009 in the quarter. The economy shrank 0.7 percent in the second quarter of the year, following a 2.6 percent contraction in the prior quarter.
Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said yesterday that a modest rebound in economic activity was expected in the quarter following the technical recession in the first half of the year.
“Specifically, third quarter’s growth is forecast at 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised. The lift in the third quarter GDP growth momentum is, in the main, expected to have been underpinned by positive growth in the manufacturing and trade sectors,” Kaplan said.
The largest negative contributors to second-quarter GDP growth were the agriculture industry, which plunged 29.2 percent, followed by the transport industry, which declined 4.9 percent and trade which decreased 1.9 percent.
The Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank have both revised this year’s growth forecasts following poor second-quarter GDP print.