Niger in the dry Sahel region struggles to feed its 25 million people. It currently ranks 115th out of 121 countries on the Global Hunger Index, and the number of people not getting enough to eat has increased from about 13% of the population in 2014 to 20% last year.
Things could deteriorate. Niger has one of the highest population growth rates in the world. And most of the country is infertile. Two-thirds of its area is located in the Sahara.
Niger’s population also has among the lowest human capital indexes, which, among other things, means people cannot earn enough to afford to buy food. This challenge is even greater given the recent shift in budgetary priorities away from social development towards national security due to instability in the Sahel region.
To make matters worse, Niger is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change.
It’s projected that 2 million more Nigerians will be pushed into undernourishment by 2050 because of the effects of climate change on crop yields and because agricultural workers (around 75% of the employed population) will struggle to work in the heat.
So, how will Niger go from feeding 25 million people today to its projected population of 50 million in 2050?
In a recently published study, my colleagues and I identified three interventions: Better food supply, with accelerated investments in agricultural research; less food demand through slower population growth; and global market integration.
But what should take priority to get the best outcome? We created a model using data from several sources, including household and farm surveys and satellite images.
Based on simulations, we argue that unless fertility rates fall, rapid population growth and climate change are likely to outpace possible advancements in agricultural productivity.
Interventions must focus on higher farm productivity, such as farmers’ access to new technologies. Greater integration into regional markets will also help combat undernourishment.
Agricultural productivity has been increasing, driven by new crop varieties, local soil and water conservation technologies. Also, by natural regeneration in which farmers use their indigenous knowledge to select natural regeneration of trees and shrubs.
In addition, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement is expected to lead to greater market integration and more trade in goods in the agri-food sector from surplus to deficit regions.
Niger will need improvements in trade and transport infrastructure.
While designing interventions, it is also important to remember that a large share of the trade happens through informal cross-border trade. There must be additional investments in local agricultural research and dissemination and to transform this into agricultural productivity growth.
Improved support for local researchers, enhanced extension services, private sector partnerships for technology dissemination and input market access can boost adoption of new technologies by farmers.
But agricultural productivity growth will probably be outpaced by population growth and climate change setbacks. This means the population growth rate must fall.
Funds must be allocated to family planning and health. A big win would be investments in women’s education empowering them to make birthing decisions responsibly.
Keeping girls in school also cuts the chance of child marriage – a cause and consequence of pregnancy in adolescence. Investing in education is linked to better food and nutrition security.
History tells us that a young and growing population facing food insecurity and unemployment can be a breeding ground for more instability. Ensuring food security for Niger’s rapidly growing young population is just as important for its national security.
* Kayenat Kabir is a Research and Teaching Associate at Purdue University.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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