Tshwarelo Hunter Mogakane
Pretoria - The scrapping of the ANC’s step-aside rule may not affect President Cyril Ramaphosa, despite the Phala Phala farm robbery scandal, because money plays a huge role in ANC elections and the governing party is currently full of people who are “heavily invested” in his presidency, say political analysts.
Ramaphosa’s opponents don’t seem to have deep pockets to buy delegates, and possible adverse findings by the Public Protector against Ramaphosa won’t necessarily translate in the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) charging him over the Phala Phala matter.
This is according to three political commentators who spoke to Pretoria News amid calls by the ANC in KZN and Limpopo for the scrapping of the controversial step-aside rule. It bars members who have been charged criminally from occupying office and contesting leadership positions. However, Mpumalanga has passed a resolution supporting the step-aside rule.
This comes as 2 000 ANC delegates converged on Nasrec in Gauteng for the party’s national policy conference this weekend, which is expected to set the tone for the national elective conference in December.
Independent political analyst Gakwi Mashego said political campaigns were an expensive exercise, and needed fund-raising to be done years before an elective conference because money does exchange hands at ANC conferences.
“A few months is a limited space because in the ANC it’s not about the words that you can say to inspire comrades to vote for you. It’s all about fund-raising and money changing hands. For anyone to go around looking for a donor to give them R2million to topple a billionaire incumbent is a fantasy. Comrades understand the language of money and what they stand to benefit after the conference,” Mashego said.
“Lastly, it is obvious that Ramaphosa has delivered to the capital in the past five years. All he has to say is ‘give me another five years and I will deliver more’. Anybody who wants to raise more funds than Ramaphosa will have to triple their efforts, and I don’t see anyone managing to do that. Currently, Ace (Magashule) is facing charges, David Mabuza is not trusted, and Zweli Mkhize is tainted. In the end, provinces can talk policy but money will win the day just as it did in Nasrec.”
According to Dr John Molepo, the scrapping of the rule would have no bearing on Ramaphosa because the outcome of the Public Protector’s investigation into Phala Phala would not necessarily result in the NPA charging the president.
“The scrapping of the step-aside rule is not being demanded to favour Ramaphosa but those people it has adversely affected. Even if the Deputy Public Protector finds against Ramaphosa, this will not necessarily translate into the NPA charging him. This means whether the step-aside rule is scrapped or not, Ramaphosa will not be affected. Some ANC leaders just want to be able to participate in the party’s affairs, not to contest the president,“ said Molepo.
Professor Sipho Seepe agreed with Mashego on ANC members’ inclination towards financial benefit. “The current ANC is full of people who are heavily invested in the Ramaphosa presidency. As we speak, Ramaphosa is in deep trouble… But he is still in office. Thanks to the mainstream media, his misdeeds are being swept under the carpet.
“But his misdeeds are likely to catch up with him,” Seepe added.
Mpumalanga ANC insiders told the Pretoria News yesterday that they resolved not to support the scrapping of the step-aside rule because it would compromise the chances of their preferred presidential candidate.
“You never know what will happen at the conference. There is a high possibility that Ramaphosa will be out before the elective conference sits. So, allowing the step-aside rule to be scrapped will bring in people we do not want as a province because we have our own preferred candidate whose moves we do not want to publicly disclose,” said an ANC insider who asked not to be named.
The politician said that there was a likelihood that the Marikana anniversary could be used by some aggrieved political parties to call for a national shutdown, which would create serious problems for Ramaphosa.
“We have been backing Ramaphosa but as a structure we have also been watching the developments closely and we understand that should there be a national shutdown on Marikana Day, the president might step down in fear of another massacre. We believe he would want to avoid all of that for the sake of his and the ANC’s image in society,” he added.
ANC national spokesperson Pule Mabe and Mpumalanga secretary Muzi Chirwa could not be reached for comment yesterday.
Pretoria News