The ANC succession battle, once thought to be a two-horse race, has seen the field open up to include eight potential candidates to replace President Jacob Zuma in 2019. While some candidates have openly raised their hands and started to campaign vigorously, others have been suggested as candidates because of their experience and seniority in the party. Independent Media’s political team looks at their chances, how they have campaigned, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, and Durban-based political analyst Thabani Khumalo (TK) gives us his perspective on their chances of winning
Mathews Phosa
Phosa’s campaign message has been that the country needs to focus on key areas where drastic changes need to take place.
These are to treat education as a national key strategic project and redefine the economic strategy, offering incentives to the private sector and investors, accelerating public works programmes and redesigning state-owned enterprises.
While he has been largely active in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape, he was in the Ilembe district this week to speak to business people.
TK says: He has tried his best in the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape, but I am not sure how much support he has in his home province of Mpumalanga. He will not come close to the others in this contest.
Zweli Mkhize
ANC treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize has been criss-crossing KZN in his campaign, addressing various forums, meet and greets with editors and journalists, and pre-campaigning at Mangosuthu University of Technology before the students representative council elections on Thursday.
The former KZN premier is at the centre of allegations that he tried to persuade President Jacob Zuma’s rape accuser, Fezekile Ntsukela Kuzwayo (Khwezi), to drop charges against the president.
The allegations have been published in radio journalist Redi Thlabi’s book Khwezi: The remarkable story of Fezekile Ntsukela Kuzwayo. Mkhize said Kuzwayo had not raised any issues or complaints with him and he was puzzled about what had gone wrong between the two. Mkhize said: “As a husband and a father to my own daughters, I could never advocate for the dropping of charges against anyone accused
of rape.”
Should he be elected president, Mkhize says he will renew the party, focussing on strengthening governance and helping to improve the confidence of South Africans. He has promised that no ANC leader would be protected from prosecution if implicated in state capture.
TK says: Zweli Mkhize finds himself in a very good position, having been touted as a compromise candidate, but so far he has not received much support from the ground and the ANC structures. Until he gets that type of support, he is very much a dark horse and is lagging behind Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Cyril Ramaphosa and Lindiwe Sisulu.
Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma
On Tuesday, funeral parlour owners told Dlamini Zuma she had to practise what she preached in terms of radical economic empowerment.
The funeral parlour owners felt their industry was dominated by large, mainly white-owned businesses and that needed to change.
Cyril Ramaphosa, who has a large support base in KwaZulu-Natal, has been aggressive there. The ANC in the province is understood to have thrown its weight behind Dlamini Zuma.
TK says: NDZ has been very active and has led a good campaign. Her campaign has seen her as a front runner in the race, together with Ramaphosa. There are a few issues with her campaign.
First, the party leaders who are pushing for her are saddled with a lot of political problems. Then there is her association with President Jacob Zuma. Finally, she was presented as someone who must become president of the country because she is a woman.
It was wrong to introduce her to this race as a female candidate because her political attributes speak for themselves. She is a seasoned politician and has left a visible footprint in the government. These are her strengths but those behind her have highlighted the fact that she is a woman and this is why she should win.
Lindiwe Sisulu
Lindiwe Sisulu is seen as one of the strong candidates to lead the ANC. Sisulu this week responded to allegations circulating on social media that she had attended a Gupta event in 2015.
“The so-called ‘Gupta Leaks’ e-mail doing the rounds in the social media purporting that the minister was among the list of people who accepted some form of invite by the Gupta family in February 2015 is regrettable and should be dismissed with the contempt it deserves‚” Sisula’s office said.
Sisulu has been critical about state capture allegations and any link to the Gupta family could damage her campaign.
TK says: Lindiwe Sisulu has run a good campaign and in the race, she is behind Ramaphosa and Dlamini Zuma and before Mkhize. She has been endorsed by more branches than Mkhize and her campaign has been more visible.
Gwede Mantashe
One of the most senior and well-respected members of the ANC, secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, was one of the
first to criticise President Jacob Zuma’s midnight cabinet reshuffle which saw the axing of finance minister Pravin Gordhan.
TK says: There is uncertainty over whether Gwede Mantashe has been approached to throw his name into the hat. I have seen his name on both factions’ lists and he is up for the chairperson role.
Cyril Ramaphosa
Cyril Ramaphosa’s campaign slogan is CR17 and for now he seems to be the frontrunner, with Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma following closely.
He enjoys some support in KwaZulu-Natal but is stronger in other provinces.
The EFF and Ramaphosa’s detractors won’t let him forget the Marikana tragedy despite him issuing an apology before the recent anniversary.
TK says: Ramaphosa is sending out a message that people want to hear. He has spoken about fighting corruption and setting up commissions to investigate state capture. His campaign message has captured the attention of most South Africans.
It is a message that South Africans want to hear.
Those he has aligned himself with are people who are held in high regard by many South Africans.
Paul Mashatile
Paul Mashatile probably had his name suggested for the presidential position but this is unlikely.
He appears to be a king-maker as opposed to becoming the king.
TK says: Paul Mashatile won’t be standing as a presidential candidate.
I have seen his name on the Ramaphosa faction list and he is up for the treasurer-general position.
Baleka Mbete
Baleka Mbete’s decision to hold a secret ballot came as a surprise but she has faced criticism in Parliament for the way in which she handled parliamentary processes in the
wake of the “pay back the money” fiasco. Another possible kingmaker.
TK says: Baleka Mbete is not campaigning. The only time she was linked to the race for the presidency of the party was in the beginning, when she said she was available as a candidate.