Melanie Gosling
Environment Writer
THE Karoo is becoming an energy generator with new wind and solar power plants already generating electricity and the potential of shale gas from fracking in the future.
But questions have been raised as to whether the South African authorities have the skills or the know-how to manage an industry as complex as fracking, and whether the costs to society and the natural environment will outweigh the benefits to the economy and the country’s energy security.
These were some of the issues raised at a meeting in the city on Friday when leaders of the team doing the strategic environmental assessment for shale gas development in South Africa held a workshop both to tell the public about the assessment and to get the public’s input and hear concerns.
The assessment covers almost 200 000km2 over three provinces, the area where companies have applied for shale gas exploration rights. Shell has submitted three applications, and Bundu Gas & Oil and Falcon Oil & Gas have each submitted one.
The government appointed the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the SA National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the Council for Geosciences (CGS) to do the assessment, which is based on science and examines 17 areas in which fracking may have an impact. These include water, economics, air quality, tourism, agriculture, “sense of place”, infrastructure, biodiversity, social fabric, noise and health.
Systems ecologist Bob Scholes, formerly from the CSIR and now at the Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute at Wits, is co-leader of the assessment.
Scholes told the meeting the objective of the assessment was to inform the government about the risks and opportunities of shale gas development in the Karoo, based on evaluations by acknowledged experts in a range of fields. There will be more than 60 contributing authors and around 100 additional experts who will give input. A few will be paid “a modest honorarium” but will receive no pay. The public will have sight of all the studies and can comment at any stage.
“One of the key things we need to deliver to government is to… answer: ‘What are the limits of acceptable change?’... Whether or not fracking will occur will be informed by the risk. We will make sure we give them the best possible information to make a sensible decision,” Scholes said.
Some of the study areas were highly technical and scientific, others not. “For instance social fabric. Everyone agrees it is super-important, but it is very difficult to define. It deals with how Karoo communities will be affected by things like the massive influx of people looking for jobs or with the massive noisy machinery.”
The assessment will look at the potential impacts of fracking on these areas in four scenarios: if there were no shale gas development; if there were only exploration and nothing further; if there were exploration and limited gas production of around 5 trillion cubic foot (Tcf); if there were extensive gas production of around 20 Tcf. Scholes said 20 Tcf was not considered a big resource globally, but was 20 times bigger than Mossgas.
“It is not insignificant and would contribute significantly to our energy source.”
Anyone can become a stakeholder in the process and can register online at http://seasgd.csir.co.za