Nkosikhulule Nyembezi
Cape Town - President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cabinet reshuffle on Monday night was about both tightening his grip on power and re-engineering prospects of his second term in the Union Buildings.
By appointing Paul Mashatile as his deputy and rewarding loyalists, the president ended up with four ministers and four deputies in the Presidency, and has decapitated rivals in the ANC and government.
Mashatile’s arrival as the party’s cheerleader-in-chief responsible for managing government business in Parliament suggests that Ramaphosa is pursuing an ideologically driven agenda.
He hopes it can sell as economically necessary to keep the party and government together as he transitions to a second term as president.
Electoral calculations are never far away.
The best barometer for how well Ramaphosa is doing as president, deputised by Mashatile, will be how closely his Cabinet sticks to the script.
Will his ministers back him when the going gets tough in the coming months? Or will the most ambitious start finding reasons to stray outside their brief or make crowd-pleasing interventions?
Such moves would suggest discipline is slackening after the recent national conference and that his one-time leadership rivals believe there could soon be another vacancy at the Union Building as early as 2023.
It would not usher in what is supposed to be a new dawn, but would rather leave South Africans feeling like it is the middle of the night.
As Ramaphosa faces a daunting in-tray of ANC conference resolutions to implement and weaker parliamentary support than his predecessors, his hope is that loyalty will triumph.
Ramaphosa believes that as a deputy to former president Jacob Zuma, he has been loyal to him – and it is now time for his ministers to do the same in return as he fulfils his ambition to get a second term in power.
This is the foundation on which he formed his revamped Cabinet.
Most of the plum jobs have gone to those who backed him early on in the race for the party presidency, leadership rivals who rowed in behind him after being knocked out and rival backers who saw the error of their ways and switched.
Yet, for those leaders in the ANC outside of Ramaphosa’s faction looking on, many cannot shake the feeling that adherence to party discipline is the most important asset if you want to get on.
The fact that some had supported a vote of no confidence in Parliament last December while others contested Ramaphosa’s slate at the last party conference led some of the president’s backers to hope he would sack them from the Cabinet.
This has not come to pass. Instead, Ramaphosa kept them in the bloated executive and said the changes were not about overhauling the national executive, but intended to fill vacancies that had occurred in the executive “and to direct government more effectively towards the areas that require urgent and decisive action”.
But another problem lurks here concerning individuals who might have done a better job as ministers but declined the promotion opportunity.
This is not just a story about influential leaders with identifiable constituencies who want to serve but have received the cold shoulder; it is about the fact that several do not even want to do that this time under the indecisive and kingmaker-beholden Ramaphosa.
Take former deputy president David Mabuza, who reportedly turned down offers to continue serving until next year’s elections because he felt betrayed by Ramaphosa.
Several credible ANC leaders are now so concerned about keeping hold of their seats in Parliament in the face of diminishing party support that they do not want any promotion that could distract them from the urgent task of returning to Parliament after the next elections.
Many are exhausted and can barely hide their lack of enthusiasm; a handful of MPs are beginning to look at the prospect of governing in coalition with the EFF and other minor parties with misty eyes.
It is why supporters of Ramaphosa hope that the nearing elections will concentrate minds and stop the haemorrhaging in the party.
But the danger for him is that the piling corruption scandals and deepening economic woes could make his Cabinet start to focus more not on delivering services to the people before next year’s national and provincial elections, but on wasting time thinking about the election that would follow a humiliating ANC defeat – the next party leadership election to replace Ramaphosa.
But promoting some new faces like Sihle Zikalala, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Maropene Ramokgopa and others and rewarding loyalty in others like Zizi Kodwa and Noxolo Kiviet gives Ramaphosa a lukewarm sense of security that he can have a better shot at leading the party five more years after next year’s election.
Most presidents dislike sacking their colleagues. Ramaphosa is no exception.
His shake-up dropped Lindiwe Sisulu, Nathi Mthethwa and Maite Nkoana-Mashabane and left Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and others in place.
Rather than an embarrassment of resignations, too many ANC politicians who make it to the top and continue to stay there, even though embroiled in corruption scandals, embarrass the government and the country.
Some ministers might be gone in weeks or months if the corruption investigations under way result in prosecutions and convictions.
If they do depart, they will open another opportunity for Ramaphosa to further fortify his Cabinet with loyal supporters in just a few months before next year’s elections.
The problem is the Phala Phala farm scandal could cut short Ramaphosa’s tenure, portraying him as an electoral liability.
The ANC remains factional and mutinous, even as the implementation of the state capture commission recommendations that threaten the political future of influential individuals in the party intensifies.
It may be a high-risk act of conciliation and grudging adherence to party rules to give a deputy president seat to the powerful Mashatile.
For this reason, public opinion is ultimately what matters. Forget loyalty: good numbers from increased electoral support will offer Ramaphosa the best protection against troublesome colleagues and his indecisive self.
Nyembezi is a researcher, policy analyst and human rights activist
Cape Times