Cape Town - Eskom said it expects load shedding to continue in the summer months with Stage 4 being the maximum implemented in its Power System Outlook plan.
Briefing the portfolio committees on Public Enterprises and Mineral Resources and Energy in Parliament, Eskom systems operator Isabel Fick gave an overview of the system’s status and its power outlook for the summer.
“Any one week we have an uncertainty of about 4000MW on the system because of the uncertainty that comes with unplanned outages, which is why we have load shedding Stage 2 most of the time.
“This outage plan was stress-tested with three scenarios by the System Operator to estimate the other capability loss factor (OCGT) usage and the level of load shedding,” Fick said.
“For summer 2022-2023, 13 000MW, 14 000MW and 16 000MW of unplanned capability loss factor and OCGT provision was used. The plan requires OCGT usage over weekdays, and low diesel usage on some weekends,” she said.
Fick said the plan was “tight”, and any significant outage slips would have a knock-on effect that would influence the plan, and that it did not cater for difficulties that could arise at power stations due to industrial action or other employee protests, as was the case this year.
Energy specialist Khetsiwe Dlamini-Mtiyane said, “Planning to avert industrial action by engaging with their labour stakeholders would have been a better approach (for Eskom).
“However, Eskom missed this opportunity by failing to secure a twoyear wage deal with the unions. The current wage deal was for one year, which puts the country in the same position next year if Eskom and the unions are unable to reach an agreement,” Dlamini-Mtiyane said.
Eskom also planned to add new generation capacity through its landleasing initiative with independent power producers and other means of power generation that were highlighted in its energy crisis interventions earlier this year.
However, research fellow in the UCT Global Risk Governance programme and energy expert, Hilton Trollip, said it was crucial that Eskom follow through with this plan and that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy support it by expediting regulatory processes.